February 17, 2011
By Staff Reporter
As of Monday, the only main protagonist in the current standoff to show any humility, or subject himself to what could be deemed “humiliation?” was the taoiseach, Bertie Ahern.
Forced into an embarrassing apology to Paisley Monday night, Ahern was not slow in making amends for his earlier, and apparently unintended, rejection of the DUP’s demand for arms photography.
Ahern’s initial U-turn followed a meeting with Sinn Fein’s president, Gerry Adams, and the party’s chief negotiator, Martin McGuinness, at his North Dublin constituency office on Monday morning. He emerged to tell reporters that photography was now “unworkable.”
A clearly delighted Adams later told the press that the issue was dead and “buried in Ballymena.”
An outraged DUP immediately cut off all contact with the Irish government. Only days earlier Ahern had stood shoulder to shoulder with British Prime Minister Tony Blair in Belfast’s Waterfront Hall and called for the delivery of IRA photos.
Indeed, the British and Irish government proposals, which were published last Wednesday, came down firmly on the side of Paisley. Sinn Fein was in a minority of one in rejecting photography. The DUP, the Ulster Unionists, the SDLP, the British and Irish governments, and even the Bush administration backed the call for photographs.
As a result, Sinn Fein endured much of the blame for the impasse.
Come Monday, however, Paisley suddenly found that one of his more unlikely allies had abandoned him. The pressure was no longer on Sinn Fein. But by nightfall, Ahern had again turned 180 degrees and offered Paisley an unqualified apology. Humility or humiliation?
Ahern responding to the perception that he was siding with Paisley had, not for the first time, used the Northern peace process to stake out a position that he believes will buffer Fianna Fail from Sinn Fein in the forthcoming Dail elections. It backfired.
With an eye on the elections, Ahern made a calculated bid to put a little distance between himself and Paisley.
The two governments had hoped to embarrass the republican movement into accepting their proposals. It was increasingly apparent by the weekend, however, that Sinn Fein was emerging relatively unscathed from the latest debacle.
The Southern Irish media, which is usually caustic in its analysis of Sinn Fein, largely latched on to cartoonish image of Paisley as the man who again said “No.”
The Evening Herald, which is owned by Anthony O’Reilly’s Independent News & Media — an organization not known for going easy on republicans — pinned the blame firmly on Paisley in a front-page story accompanied by a less than complimentary photograph of the DUP leader.
A number of articles in the broadsheets also suggested that Paisley was at fault for the breakdown.
By Friday night, Adams had delivered a polished performance on RTE’s “Late Late Show,” where he explained the Sinn Fein position to a largely compliant audience. Ahern, meanwhile, was still seen to be siding with Paisley’s position. The optics were not good for Fianna Fail.
Fianna Fail is still coming to grips with June’s local election results. Sinn Fein made huge gains among working-class voters. Ahern admitted at the time that Sinn Fein had eaten into his party’s core base and that he would need to look at ways of winning voters back.
Sinn Fein had proven that a republican-minded constituency existed in the South and that a proactively republican party could make inroads into the vote of the more established parties.
Ahern, by being seen to cozy up to the DUP, was doing his republican credentials and those of Fianna Fail little good.
By conceding ground to Sinn Fein on Monday, Ahern was probably hoping to bolster his image as a republican. Associating oneself with Paisley does not win votes in North Dublin.
However, Ahern appears to have miscalculated. The DUP, in a fit of pique, hit the nuclear button and withdrew all contact with Ahern’s government. Paisley is no David Trimble and is not afraid to pull the rug from under the ongoing talks process of he doesn’t get what he wants. He accused Ahern of having “double-crossed” him.
Ahern’s subsequent act of contrition at the foot of the DUP altar demonstrated just how central the DUP has become to the thinking of the two governments on the way forward in the North.
Whether their faith in the DUP will bear fruit is far from clear. Nationalist observers have warned that appeasement of the DUP is a dangerous strategy. They claim that Paisley has yet to prove his power-sharing bona fides and that large parts of his party remain hostile to the notion of joint government with Catholics.
Concerns also exist in nationalist circles that the decision by the two governments to publish their joint proposals could backfire, as many DUP supporters will be alarmed by the extent to which the Good Friday agreement has been retained.
The offices of first minister and deputy first minister, the power sharing executive, and the North-South bodies have all been retained. Many of the changes, ostensibly designed to improve the “accountability” of the executive have been deemed cosmetic by the DUP’s unionist rivals.
The prospect of growing discontent within the DUP’s ranks cannot be ruled out in the coming months. This would inevitably make any fresh attempts to reach agreement, which are not likely until after the British general election in the spring, all the more difficult.
Ahern, meanwhile, is once again swimming in the IRA photography pool after his brief excursion down greener waters.