February 17, 2011
By Staff Reporter
The disbelievers, most prominent being the Democratic Unionists, were largely isolated. Those who had derided the fledgling Hume-Adams dialogue in the early 1990s, pouring scorn on the IRA ceasefires and asserting that a deal between nationalism and unionism was impossible, found themselves at variance with the new political reality.
If the weekend just past is anything to go by, then the pessimists may have good reason to believe they were right all along.
The “told-you-so” brigade has had to sit it out for some time, but this Good Friday will have been the first in some time were they could scan the political landscape and confidently assert that all appears to be falling apart.
Sinn Fein is at odds with his former allies — the Irish government and the SDLP — over alleged IRA criminality. Unionists maintains that republicans will not be readmitted to government unless the IRA goes away, and the Rev. Ian Paisley has said the DUP will never strike a deal with Sinn Fein.
The republican movement, going by the mood of its Easter Sunday commemorations, is in bad form. While the speeches came replete with the obligatory predictions of a restored political deal and the distant goal of a United Ireland, the tone was downbeat.
Sinn Fein’s president, Gerry Adams, remains preoccupied with the Robert McCartney murder. The campaign by the McCartney sisters is still making the headlines amid speculation that they may begin a civil action against their brother’s killers.Subject:
Adams branded the killers “cowards” and criticized them for allowing the republican movement to be dragged through the mud.
Adams also had much to say about the Irish government. Traditionally Easter Sunday casts as its villain the British government. Speaker after speaker will normally rail against the British war machine, the police and hard-line unionism.
And just as Irish Justice Minister Michael McDowell was the central focus for many at the recent Sinn Fein ard fheis, the Irish government now comes in for much of the criticism. “Partitionism, self-interest and incompetence” was how Adams summed up Bertie Ahern’s approach to the current political crisis.
Harsh words.
While the Sinn Fein leader might be reluctant to admit it, the comments of Irish Defense Minister Willie O’Dea on Friday probably irked him.
O’Dea called for a boycott of Sinn Fein’s Easter events. The republican movement, he said, had sold out on its separatist credentials and turned instead to a life of crime. “Willie O’Who?” quipped Adams in response Saturday.
Adams’s and O’Dea’s respective constituencies will lap up such pronouncements.
However, while both sides have become accustomed to such political sniping over the last few months — much of it being little more than hot air — it is indicative of a much deeper malaise at the heart of the Irish peace process.
Conciliatory noises are no longer the norm. Instead, Sinn Fein and Ahern’s government, which in the past shared much common ground, now engage in the routine and robust barracking of each other’s positions.
There is little sign that things are set for a dramatic change. Government sources have been briefing journalists in recent days about their belief that the IRA is currently laundering the money from the Northern Bank heist. Newspaper reports have suggested that the organization used the recent Cheltenham horseracing event to get rid of millions in untraceable notes.
With the British general election expected in early May, the cat-calling looks set to continue. The Irish government has tacked its colors to the SDLP mast and will offer plenty of verbal support for Mark Durkan’s party in the coming weeks. Foreign Minister Dermot Ahern last week used the launch of a new SDLP document on Irish unity as an opportunity to berate Sinn Fein.
Sinn Fein will seek to capitalize on the perception in sections of Northern nationalism that it is being unfairly treated by the two governments. Republicans have no doubt noted the reaction of many nationalists to Michael McDowell’s anti-Sinn Fein onslaught.
Years ago, republicans used to remark that Paisley was the best recruiting officer the IRA ever had. Sinn Fein might proffer that, at least in the Six Counties, no man has done more to swell the party’s ranks in recent times than the Irish foreign minister.
Sinn Fein is expecting to pick up one, if not two, additional Westminster seats. While this would certainly be seen as a significant riposte to those who have consistently attacked the party since Christmas, such an election result will do little to improve the prospects of a fresh deal with the DUP.
Paisley’s party is likely to steal yet more ground from David Trimble’s Ulster Unionists. Deputy leader Peter Robinson, not a man given to outlandish or foolish statements, has predicted that the DUP will win nine seats, leaving the UUP with just two.
Indeed, there are whispers that David Trimble’s own UUP seat is under threat.
An emboldened DUP, despite the hopes of the two governments, is not going to rush to the help of Sinn Fein, which badly needs a power-sharing deal to reverse flagging political momentum. Instead, the party will probably choose to let republicans squirm for some time longer.