February 16, 2011
By Staff Reporter
It had been widely acknowledged for months that little or no movement was likely to occur before the poll. Both Sinn Fein and the Democratic Unionists are looking to consolidate their lead over their respective political rivals: the SDLP and the Ulster Unionists.
If both parties get the results they want this week, then they may feel in a stronger position to negotiate. Likewise, Bertie Ahern’s government may also be more willing to engage in the process given that the traumatic local and European elections in the South will have passed and the Irish presidency of the European Union is coming to an end.
Optimistic observers point to several examples that both sides may be edging together. A joint statement by the DUP’s two senior negotiators — Peter Robinson and Nigel Dodds — last week called for a peaceful summer in the North. Both Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams and Ahern quickly welcomed the statement.
The DUP statement is the first of its kind. The speed with which Adams and Ahern responded suggested that both men had some foreknowledge of it. Some observers have suggested that the move was a choreographed precursor to proper talks in the near future.
The recent declaration by Ahern’s government that the four IRA men held for the murder of Garda Jerry McCabe would be released if the IRA stands down is also being viewed as potentially crucial.
Though it’s likely that details of the deal between Sinn Fein and the Irish government were leaked by republicans in order to embarrass arch-critic Justice Minister Michael McDowell, Ahern’s acknowledgement that a deal is on the cards could be seen as an encouragement for the IRA to move during talks.
The furor over Ahern’s apparent about-face will have done him little good facing into this week’s elections and the fact that he refused to shy away from the issue suggests he is thinking ahead.
His government had been criticized in recent times for not engaging fully in the Northern peace process. Nationalists and republicans view a strong Irish input into talks as essential to a successful outcome.
However, while the elections may take some of the posturing out of the current faceoff, the prospect of a British general election next year may again put power-sharing on the long finger.
The DUP, so long the party on the periphery of Unionism, is reveling in its new role as the voice of the mainstream. Its strategists believe it can cause terminal damage to David Trimble’s UUP in the next Westminster poll. The defection of Jeffrey Donaldson from the UUP ensures the DUP an extra seat in London and some observers tip the party to steal several more.
The situation is replicated within nationalism. Sinn Fein now controls nationalism west of the Bann. It secured four seats in 2001’s election, with Michelle Gildernew and Pat Doherty breaking new ground. A watershed moment for the party was achieved with it becoming the voice of majority nationalism — a blow from which the SDLP has yet to recover. Analysts believe that the retirement of SDLP stalwarts such as Newry and Armagh’s Seamus Mallon and former party leader John Hume will only make matters worse for the party.
Sinn Fein’s Conor Murphy is tipped to claim Mallon’s seat. Viewed as the coming man within Sinn Fein, he spearheaded the recent Assembly election strategy in the area where republicans won three seats to the SDLP’s one. Similarly, Sinn Fein could conceivably snatch a seat in either South Down or Derry.
While the SDLP vote held up better in Derry than it did in most places last November, the party is still losing votes to an ascendant Sinn Fein machine. Party leader Mark Durkan, who would be penciled in to run in the constituency, cannot call on the same level of personal support that Hume once did and may find it difficult to fend off a challenge from Sinn Fein chairman Mitchell McLaughlin.
In South Down the retirement of SDLP old-timer Eddie McGrady could point to the possibility of another SDLP loss. The party has held the seat since 1987, when McGrady snatched it from the infamous UUP MP Enoch Powell. The seat is now firmly a nationalist one and the constituency has seen the growth of a strong Sinn Fein vote in recent years. The party stole one seat from the SDLP in November and believes it can go one better in the event of a general election.
Were the political landscape to be so radically altered in favor of the DUP and Sinn Fein, the implications for future political progress would be profound. Having seen off their tribal rivals, both parties could concentrate on hammering out a deal that would stick. Perhaps more important, a resounding victory for Sinn Fein might mean that issues surrounding the issue of IRA weapons could be solved quite quickly. If the DUP were true to its word then a power-sharing executive could be speedily established.
Such a scenario cannot be dismissed lightly and is one that is taken seriously by the UUP and the SDLP. Unfortunately for those keen to see the immediate restoration of power-sharing, it might just mean another long wait.