February 17, 2011
By Staff Reporter
Various reports in recent days have placed the men in locations such as Venezuela and Cuba. Much of the reporting has been based on little more than the hunches of office-bound hacks and security analysts.
The prospect that they may step off a plane at Dublin airport has, however, seemingly rattled Taoiseach Bertie Ahern.
Ahern conceded Monday that his government would have to examine any possible extradition requests raised by the Colombian authorities in such an event. At present, Ireland does not have an extradition treaty in place with Colombia.
Ahern has had to tread carefully over the matter. Coming amid the collapse of the most recent talks initiative in the North, the timing of the decision to convict Jim Monaghan, Martin McAuley and Niall Connolly could not have been more sensitive.
With all the major Southern parties just getting into the swing of latest bout of Sinn Fein bashing, the conviction of the three is like manna from heaven.
Putting aside any concerns that existed over the fairness of the conviction (which the Colombians have conceded is based on circumstantial evidence), many politicians have used the issue to hammer republicans.
Tanaiste Mary Harney said she had “no reason” to believe that a miscarriage of justice had taken place. She called on the three men to turn themselves into the Colombian authorities and appeal the conviction.
Harney neglected to mention that such an appeals process is expected to take up to five years and would mean the men would have spent a total of eight years in prison before they could expect release.
Neither did Harney address the concerns of the men’s supporters that they are now prime targets for pro-government right-wing paramilitaries who would jump at the chance to kill alleged FARC collaborators.
She has said that the Irish attorney general should be called upon to deal with the men if they arrive in Ireland.
Foreign Minister Dermot Ahern, meanwhile, has said that the government is not going to get involved in the legal process of another state. He said he was surprised at the ruling and perturbed by the severity of the sentencing but this is as far as his government appears willing to go.
In Belfast, unionists have warned the Irish government that its credibility would be put seriously to the test if the three men return.
Sinn Fein is also unlikely to relish their return given the current circumstances. It had been widely expected that the original ruling, which cleared the three of charges of training FARC guerillas, would be upheld and the men would be home before Christmas.
As it turned out the men have now been deemed guilty. The anti-republican machine has kicked into overdrive throwing aside qualms about the nature of their trial.
The DUP’s Ian Paisley Jr. welcomed the convictions as “an early Christmas present” for the people of the North. He said they proved that the psychology of Sinn Fein remained one of “warfare.”
Focus has been taken off the impasse in the North and instead now points toward Sinn Fein’s credentials in the Republic.
A return home by the men would bring Sinn Fein front and center. Unionists and the Southern parties would demand that the party support calls for the men to return to Colombia, turn themselves in and rely on the appeals process.
In the event that this happens, it would be unlikely that the Irish government would call for repatriation to an Irish prison. Fine Gael has already staked out its position out on this matter. Party sources say that the men could not feature in any future political negotiations and Fine Gael would reject any moves to treat them under the Good Friday agreement’s prisoner release scheme.
Just what impact this type of political pressure would have on the republican rank and file is unclear.
The deadlock between Sinn Fein and the DUP, meanwhile, has now disappeared from the front pages. Bertie Ahern said at the weekend that he did not see any prospect of agreement over IRA arms in the near future.
However, some commentators have suggested that movement on the issue may be going on behind the scenes.
The DUP leader, the Rev. Ian Paisley, said following last week’s discussions at Hillsborough Castle that he had “firm evidence” that the IRA was considering going ahead with decommissioning without photographs. Paisley warned that such a move would have “serious consequences” for the two governments’ draft agreement.
While Sinn Fein described Paisley’s comments as the stuff of “Alice in Wonderland,” RTE reported Thursday that senior republican Gerry Kelly had refused to rule out speculation about unilateral IRA decommissioning.
Senior DUP negotiator Jeffrey Donaldson fueled the speculation Sunday when he told the Dublin-based Sunday Business Post that his party would demand a longer “cooling off” period between IRA disarmament and power sharing if the IRA decommissioned without photographs. He refused to rule out the possibility of a deal being struck between Sinn Fein and the DUP in light of such an event.
The Belfast-based Sunday Life newspaper also quoted anonymous DUP sources as making similar overtures.