February 15, 2011
By Staff Reporter
By Andrew Bushe in Dublin
and Anne Cadwallader in Belfast
A bruising battle between Sinn FTin and the SDLP to become the dominant voice of Northern Nationalists, further splintering among Unionists and, in the Republic, a new alignment of the left of the political spectrum. This is one scenario, and a likely one, being outlined this week in the aftermath of last week’s historic referendum on the Northern Ireland peace accord.
Following the overwhelming endorsement of the peace deal, the focus of weary politicians in Northern Ireland has now switched to what will be the hard-fought battle of the June 25 election for the new North assembly. Already, extensive exit polls have revealed dramatic shifts in party loyalties since the multiparty peace talks began two years ago.
Party strategists in both the Unionist and Nationalist parties
are carefully studying the figures to decide on campaigning tactics during the next month, and whether to strike up voting allegiances and transfer pacts.
Never miss an issue of The Irish Echo
Subscribe to one of our great value packages.
An RTE poll reveals that John Hume’s SDLP is set to emerge as
the largest political party in the new Northern assembly and is gaining voters at the expense of Sinn FTin.
The RTE poll was carried out by Lansdowne Marketing Research and Ulster Market Surveys. More than 1,750 voters were interviewed at 90 polling stations in Northern Ireland.
Unionist camp
The Unionist parties, meanwhile, are splintering even further, although David Trimble’s Ulster Unionist Party remains the largest.
Both the UUP and the Rev. Ian Paisley’s DUP each have lost about 6 percent support during the last two years, with the main gainers being Bob McCartney’s UK Unionists and the moderate Alliance led by John Alderdice.
In the assembly elections, it will be crucial for Trimble to get sufficient seats for his UUP to ensure the “frustraters” and “wreckers” on the Unionist side are not given the opportunity to cause gridlock in the 108-member “parliament.”
Building on the huge personal backing from his own party, Trimble must ensure pro-agreement candidates are chosen and the so-called soft “No” faction, led by Jeffrey Donaldson, are either confronted or
accommodated. Donaldson, foir his part, indicated in the aftermath of the vote to work toward making the accord work.
The RTE exit poll revealed the main concerns among Unionist “No”
voters were security and prisoner issues. The survey found the issue of the release of paramilitary prisoners was the main problem, with 77 percent dissatisfied.
There was also concern by a third of those interviewed that
paramilitary violence would continue, and more than a third of those questioned were worried about the decommissioning of paramilitary arsenals. There were also worries about RUC reforms.
Only 4 percent of Protestants, compared with 16 percent of Catholics, said they were very confident there would be long-lasting peace.
Among nationalists
Meanwhile, within nationalism, the gloves will be off between the SDLP and Sinn FTin. Sinn FTin’s long-term ambition is to replace John Hume’s party as the largest in the Catholic community.
Sinn FTin has already sought an election pact with the SDLP but it seems as though its overtures are going to be pushed aside by the larger party.
SDLP spokeswoman Brfd Rodgers has already said the idea is not even worth contemplating, as a pact is not required in an election run under proportional representation.
She also said that the referendum victory now heralded a path toward a new politics in the North, suggesting that some SDLP votes may transfer to pro-Agreement Unionists rather than to Sinn FTin.
Sinn FTin’s long-term strategy of overtaking the SDLP is going to be difficult. Those electors who “lent” Sinn FTin their vote to strengthen Gerry Adams’s hand with the IRA may now return to the SDLP fold.
There may also be slippage as traditional republican voters, disillusioned with the Adams’ peace strategy, and instinctively unable to vote in a non-abstentionism Stormont election, simply stay at home on polling day.
In the Republic
In the wake of the peace deal’s acceptance, a new alignment of
the left in Irish politics in the South is on the way following the start of negotiations this week between Labor leader Ruairf Quinn and Democratic Left’s Prionsfas De Rossa.
A possible marriage between the parties and the emergence of a
new left has been rumored for some time after they successfully worked together in the Rainbow coalition only to suffer heavy losses in last year’s general election.
If the move is successful in electoral terms it could place the
Left in a pivotal role as part of future coalitions.
A range of options will be explored: a merger, a common platform
going into elections with a voting pact between them and the creation of a completely new party.
De Rossa said that what he had in mind was trying to “catch the mood in Ireland following the agreement in relation to Northern Ireland.
“The politics of the civil war are over, he said, and the Left
should take the opportunity to see how it can effectively become a major political force in Irish society. Ffanna Fail and Fine Gael should
seriously consider doing the same thing as the left-wing parties.
“There is an opportunity now for a lot of the old politics we
have had in the past – where Fine Gael and Ffanna Fail simply oppose each other because that’s what they have always done so they were formed in the 1920s out of the Civil War – to be transcended.”