Day of reckoning

By Jack Holland

As Northern Ireland girds itself for the decommissioning day of reckoning, a leading Unionist has warned that if Ulster Unionist Party chief David Trimble compromises on his hardline demand that the IRA hand over weapons, he is "a goner."

Trimble’s security spokesman, Ken Maginnis, issued the warning in New York last week when he said that it was impossible for Trimble to backtrack and allow Sinn Fein into the new Northern Ireland government prior to a weapons handover because "he has a specific instruction from the party that on this one he cannot make his own decision. He’s tied."

According to Maginnis: "Too many top-level Unionists have committed themselves the same way."

The remarks starkly highlight the dilemma faced by both the British and Irish governments as Prime Minister Tony Blair and Taoiseach Bertie Ahern flew into Belfast Monday in an apparent last-ditch attempt to break the long-standing deadlock over the issue. The deadline for the setting up of the executive is April 2. But the IRA has continually refused to consider decommissioning before Sinn Fein’s entry into the Executive, where it is entitled to two seats. Trimble has committed himself to the demand in the struggle to prevent his support within the UUP from crumbling.

Said an official close to the peace process: "The UUP fears an Faulknerization of the party." In 1973, Unionist leader Brian Faulkner signed up the Sunningdale Agreement, envisioning a power-sharing government for Northern Ireland with a Council of Ireland. But the majority within his own party deserted him and he was forced to resign as head of the new government on May 28, 1974, thanks to a successful campaign of loyalist resistance, after enjoying power for less than five months.

On Feb. 18, unionist assembly members split evenly over a vote on whether or not to support the arrangements for the setting up of the Executive, including its 10 departments, cross-border bodies and Irish-British conference, with 29 in favor and 29 against. It is believed that in order to secure that vote, Trimble promised a leading UUP dissenter, Roy Beggs Jr., that Sinn Fein would not be allowed to enter government without prior decommissioning.

The Irish and British governments now fear that there is a swing away from support for the agreement both within the UUP and the Protestant community in general.

"If a referendum were held now among Northern Ireland Protestants," commented an official, "it’d be 60-40 against."

Maginnis was visiting New York as part of a trip to meet congressional representatives. He said that he did not think a statement from the IRA declaring the war is over for good, that their weapons were in "deep storage," and that they would begin decommissioning at some future date would suffice. He said that "the public wouldn’t believe it. If the war is over why can’t the permanency of this be demonstrated? It’s never been simply a matter of physical gun beings disposed off — there’s a psychological hurdle of convincing us that the IRA is committed to purely democratic means."

He said that if the IRA had made such an offer six or eight months ago "it would’ve been different. But every time [Martin] McGuinness said ‘not a single bullet’ would be handed over, the more it became impossible to compromise."

McGuinness, who is Sinn Fein’s chief negotiator, recently warned against turning the peace process into a "decommissioning process" and has joined other party leaders like Gerry Adams in reiterating the IRA’s refusal to deliver weapons as a precondition to Sinn Fein taking executive seats. McGuinness also warned recently that the situation could "slide backward to what we had before."

"That’s typical McGuinness language," commented the UUP security spokesman. "Based on what McGuinness said, I don’t think you could bury weapons deep enough" to reassure Unionists.

As the day of reckoning arrives, the sense of urgency was heightened by the knowledge that the Northern Ireland marching season begins on Easter Monday with the contentious Orange parade down the Catholic Lower Ormeau Road in South Belfast. Officials fear that the failure to make progress this week would certainly increase communal tension and lead to a strengthening of the anti-agreement forces within both the Protestant community and the republican movement.

The June 11 European elections could become a second referendum on the Good Friday Agreement with the prospect of diehards such as the Rev. Ian Paisley and Robert McCartney capitalizing on any breakdown in the process. The mood of crisis would be even further darkened as the annual confrontation at Drumcree approaches. This time there is the threat of it becoming even uglier than in previous years. Orange lodges throughout Northern Ireland are planning to converge on the embattled Catholic residents on Garvaghy Road, who, following the murder of human rights lawyer and local activist Rosemary Nelson, will be in no mood to offer any concessions.

Given such prospects, observers feel that Blair and Ahern will not allow the agreement to crumble. But how they intend to shore it up still remained unclear as the deadline was reached.Taoiseach Bertie Ahern and Prime Minister Tony Blair speak with reporters at Stormont Monday after meeting with Northern Ireland’s political leaders. . . .