Dublin Report Assuaging right wing of any party won’t secure assembly

By John Kelly

Nobody told us what later happened to the mythical boy who cried wolf. But you can be sure that somebody at least belted him over the head. Few appreciate the doomsayers. Even fewer will agree to abide with an assembly or a government that is continually on the edge of self-extinction. Somebody will finally say, "Go ahead, jump!"

To use an old Irish saying, "Long threatening comes at last." That is the general attitude toward Northern Ireland’s first minister, David Trimble, and his unionist party.

Reporters and media commentators are almost as sick of it as their readers are. They have ridden the rollercoaster of Northern aspirations, Northern possibilities, Northern hates and loves, but, most of all, Northern tragedy for more years than most of them would care to remember.

This latest crisis simply has to be the last straw. The mythical boy has certainly cried "Wolf" for the last time.

The rumor on the ground in Belfast and Dublin is that Trimble was adamant that the suspension of the Northern Assembly should take place in time for a dramatic story on the Friday evening news. He is reported to have required it so that all of his members should be fully aware of the up-to-date situation before the critical Saturday meeting.

There is no reason to discount the theory. All of the various Northern parties have become adept at manipulating the media. They have been doing it since 1968. They have long since realized that the war in the North has as much to do with propaganda as any arms, decommissioned or otherwise.

They certainly know how to organize a crisis. In fact, they are the best crisis managers in the business.

Throughout the week, the soundbites and the headlines built up to a hysterical crescendo. In whipping it up, the media dutifully obliged. It had no choice. It had to report, even in the most fanciful of circumstance.

Reporters from every conceivable hole in innumerable newsrooms scrambled to Belfast. A thick knot remained on the steps of Government Buildings in Dublin, waiting for the latest Bertieism to fall from the taoiseach’s lips. There were also the Westminster watchers, a mixed bag that included international correspondents who are almost always as confused as the bemused majority of people on the island of Ireland.

Whatever about the huge media manipulation that continued throughout the cliff-hanger of a week, the fact remains that the yawning divisions within unionism and within the IRA as well remain to threaten any future assembly that may emerge to replace the one suspended by Northern Secretary Peter Mandelson.

On the one hand, Trimble has to convince the hardliners within his own party that the peace process is the only way forward. Evidence suggests that he may not pursue that particular task with any great enthusiasm.

On the other hand, the IRA has very obvious difficulties in dealing with its own right wing, volunteers and supporters based in South Armagh in particular. While army bases remain and while patrols continue unabated, they are just not convinced that there should be disarmament. Besides, as a result of the strife, South Armagh has gradually grown to see itself as a republic within its own right.

The suspension of the assembly, especially since Gen. John de Chastelain submitted a second report saying that the IRA had outlined the context in which it could initiate a process to put arms out of use, has justifiably angered Sinn Fein. The de Chastelain-led commission on paramilitary arms decommissioning said that it held out the real prospect of an agreement that would enable it to fulfill the substance of its mandate.

It regards the British government’s action as capitulating to the extreme right wing of unionism, that wing regards the very establishment of the Assembly as surrender. It does not want it. It is in accord with the Rev. Ian Paisley’s view that the assembly is a serious threat to the union and a critical step in the direction of full independence.

Jeffrey Donaldson shares the same mindset. And it is the mindsets that have to be changed. Not even total disarmament will alter those.

At his press conference after the Unionist Council meeting, Trimble, gesturing with his fingers, outlined the very dangerous route his party is apparently going to take from here.

He revealed that it is now going to set up an internal working group to consider new issues for yet another review of the Good Friday agreement. It may yet seek an even harder bargain before it agrees to sit in a future assembly.

Certainly, that is the way a man like Donaldson would like it to proceed.

If Trimble does not share that opinion, he has inadvertently made things much more difficult for himself. He has presented his right wing with the option of a second bite of the cherry. Even the renaming of the RUC may be brought up. Surely the right wing will seize the opportunity to sink its teeth in it.

If he is earnest when he insists that his aim is an end to the Northern conflict, he will have to continue to resist that right-wing rump. So will the British government.

There is no future for an assembly that collapses so long as one section, or part of one section, is dissatisfied with the system of government. Where would the European Union be if that were to happen every six months? Where would the United States be if Congress were to wage a verbal civil war every other session? No one side can hold a veto.

It now seems certain that the British government took the step it did because it feared that Trimble might carry out a threat to resign unless his right wing was assuaged.

If that is the way it is going to continue, the peace process has no chance.

If any side learns that particular lesson, then last week’s high-wire flying may yet be of some use.