Dublin Report Opposing mindsets are barriers to compromise

By John Kelly

Even as hands were pumped and shamrocks were presented all around the world, particularly in Washington, D.C., during the annual Irish bash, some prominent Unionist Party members were raising the stakes yet again.

The inherent peril in the peace vacuum was exposed in the lead-up to St. Patrick’s Day when party members, including deputy leader, John Taylor, called for an emergency meeting of the Ulster Unionist Council.

The move came from the London dominated rump of the party, led by businessman David Burnside, who has consistently opposed the recommendations of the Patton Report and any change in the title or status of the RUC.

A majority of the party is reported to support the "Save the RUC" campaign. They threaten they will never return to the lapsed Northern Ireland Assembly if there is any change in the RUC’s title.

The "proud name" of the armed police force, the only one of its kind in the UK, will have to be retained, they insist.

The motion is similar to an earlier version put to the Unionist Party Council in February after Northern Secretary Peter Mandelson suspended the assembly. It was then withdrawn at the request of David Trimble because it was feared that it might bring his leadership into question.

Now, they are likely to fight it out again.

Not only will it bring Trimble’s leadership into further doubt but it also underlines the seriousness of the crisis still facing Northern Ireland in the absence of the assembly and the effective peace stalemate.

It is all the more odder then that so many Irish leaders delivered distinctly up-beat messages during the course of the week.

Peter Mandelson, who wrote "finis" to the eight week long existence of the assembly, was just as upbeat as any. It’s all very strange indeed, especially when one takes into account the downbeat views on decommissioning expressed by Sinn Féin leaders.

Irrespective of his optimistic pronouncements in the U.S., Mandelson admitted to the House of Commons that the prospects of decommissioning before the deadline of May 22 were very slim indeed.

Sinn Féin President Gerry Adams obviously agrees. Again, in the U.S, at a press conference in Manhattan, he stated flatly that none of the armed groups have given any indication that they will disarm or decommission.

Since the closedown of the assembly, "punishment beatings" have increased dramatically. Confrontation is again coming to the fore, even on St. Patrick’s Day, when an AOH parade was picketed by angry loyalists in the fishing port of Kilkeel, Co. Down.

Bomb threats disrupted the parade and scuffles broke out between marchers and protestors.

This is particularly ominous because the marching season is now very close indeed. Drumcree is sure to flare again.

The inherent divisions within unionism and republicanism are widening. To take but one example, it is obvious that the South Armagh division of the IRA takes a much more militant stance against decommissioning than other sections.

Internal divisions within the loyalist armed groups, particularly between the Ulster Volunteer Force and the Loyalist Volunteer Force have already led to three brutal killings.

In short, the pessimistic conclusion must be that nothing much has changed in Northern Ireland. The mindsets remain the same. Even if the assembly is restored, as many in officialdom seem to believe, those mindsets are not likely to change very much.

Decommissioning continues to hound the entire process. Its importance is hugely exaggerated. It is difficult to believe that many unionists who are opposed to partnership government, especially those based in London, are not using it as a wedge to prevent the assembly from succeeding.

The issue of standing down of illegal weapons is nothing new on the island of Ireland. Historically, from the Civil War onwards, it surfaced regularly after every sporadic IRA campaign. Invariably, it was always solved even when it had to be fudged.

The IRA never "surrendered," not even to the elected government of the Republic of Ireland. The only leader who almost managed to succeed in persuading the IRA to hand over its weapons was Eamon de Valera.

He offered it as a solution to the Free State government led by William Cosgrave before Fianna Fáil finally bit the bullet and joined Dáil Eireann as peaceful political party.

In so doing, of course, he also had to take the oath, recognizing the British Crown, the issue that ostensibly led to the Civil War costing the deaths of hundreds who had been former comrades within the united IRA.

Wisely, the Cosgrave government did not allow the failure of the IRA to disarm to prevent Fianna Fail’s participation in government.

It concluded that if it were allowed to become the main issue it would prevent the forging of the political chain. Most importantly, it realized that any attempt to impose disarmament would only lead to further resistance. It certainly did not want to do anything that might possibly lead to dangerous splits within the IRA.

Peace, not victory, became the main aim.

Unionists, particularly David Trimble who is reputed to be something of a history buff, should draw the obvious conclusions.

Peace is inevitable if the Good Friday proposals are fully accepted by all. Those proposals did not include decommissioning as a pre-requisite for the operation of the Northern Ireland Assembly.

Only when it is allowed to operate fully will peace become possible.

And not until this present generation has passed away will peace become guaranteed within the North. The differences are too great and too bitter to surmount within a relatively short time in a historical context. There will always be serious wrinkles.

It is not just unionist assent to the assembly that is necessary. It is the will to succeed that is most important. In other words, the mindsets will have to be changed.

Only a super-optimist could claim this seems possible at this juncture.