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Dublin Report P.D.s’ decline mirrors Sinn Fein’s rise

February 16, 2011

By Staff Reporter

By John Kelly

Bertie Ahern and Mary Harney need each other like bacon needs cabbage. Their destinies during the life of the Irish government coalition have been irreversibly intertwined. Their political fates are now equally uncertain.

What makes it even more critical is that the tiny Progressive Democratic Party is now in government with only 4 percent of the national vote. From its formation by a disaffected Fianna Fail Limerick T.D., Des O’Malley, the Irish voters have been more often perplexed than convinced about agenda and its relevance. Politically, it has been something of a Rubics Cube.

O’Malley and Harney were enthusiastic Fianna Fail members in the party’s best tradition. Nobody ever remembered the O’Malleys of Limerick as being anything other than dyed in the wool Fianna Failers.

As minister for education until his unfortunate early death, Donogh O’Malley was a party trendsetter. Always hard driving and progressive, he was courageous enough to take aboard the serious, well-considered suggestion from a senior civil servant that education could be provided for free in Ireland.

Until then, it was provided mainly by the clergy of all of the main religious denominations, Catholic, Protestant and Jewish. Even at secondary level, relatively small fees were often gigantic burdens for the poorer Irish families that comprised the greater part of the population. Third-level education was simply out of reach. For the most part, it was the exclusive preserve of the upper middle classes and the richest.

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It led to serious social divisions that we have not quite put behind us. When he opted for the free education system, Donogh O’Malley changed it all with the stroke of a pen. He was perfectly in tune with the 1960s and he was obviously a main contender for the party leadership during his entire sadly short political career.

It is all history now. More than anything, the freeing of education laid the foundation for the economic phenomenon of the Celtic Tiger.

Thus, in the Finn Fail nature of things, Des O’Malley might have been expected to rise high and fast within party ranks. But he did have some problems. He was abrasive and often much too direct. He was also intellectually arrogant, a man who had none of the hail-fellow, well-met attitude of his late uncle. He never quite appeared to be a man of the people. Still, his background and his obvious talent should have marked him for early success.

Harney emerged from a similar family tradition. She might also have expected bigger rewards than she ultimately enjoyed.

For both, as they attempted to advance through the ranks of the party, Northern Ireland represented a major problem to both. Neither took the broad, green line followed by the party. And neither liked its leader, Charles J. Haughey. Their hostility was handsomely reciprocated.

For reasons that have broadly turned out to be quite correct, Harney did not trust Haughey. And she certainly could not tolerate his domineering, often egotistical leadership style.

"Uno Voce, Uno Duce," was how the former government spokesman, P.J. O’Mara, described Haughey’s methods.

While Des O’Malley shared Harney’s misgivings, he also disagreed with the broad thrust of his party’s policy on both the economy and Northern Ireland.

Where Haughey seemed occasionally cavalier in his approach to the economy, often taking risks that usually came off successfully, Des O’Malley was much more cautious and conservative. Again, in that respect, he touched common ground with Harney.

Those were, and probably still are, the main differences between the parties. The voting public never did reach a verdict as to whether the major differences were personal or ideological. Most never really perceived it to be a separate party at all. It has now reached a new low in the polls, while Harney’s personal support continues to plummet at an alarming rate.

As it becomes increasingly obvious that the main opposition parties, Fine Gael and Labor, are pushing for an early Autumnal election, it is also clear that the P.D.s are not likely to attract any more than 4- 5 percent of the national vote. Its low showing may yet pose even more serious problems. This is because it is now more than likely than ever that Sinn Fein will poll higher than the P.D.s and will, in fact, become the party to hold the balance of power in a new coalition partnership.

Unless Fianna Fail can form an alliance with Labor, which is unlikely, given the apparent hostility of its leader, Ruairi Quinn, toward Bertie Ahern, it will soon have to contemplate a relationship with Sinn Fein. In fact, you can be sure that senior party strategists are already assessing what would have absolutely unmentionable a short time ago.

A recent poll underlines the unpalatable truth. Harney’s personal support rating, at 46 percent, is the lowest she has ever endured. Sinn Fein, on the other hand, is recorded as enjoying a 5 percent personal support level, a point higher than the P.D.s and one that is level with the Green Party, a minority grouping that enjoys increasing support among the younger generation.

As interesting as all of this may be, one of the most striking features of the poll is that it reveals an almost equal loss of support for Fianna Fail and for Fine Gael. Younger Irish voters, it seems, increasingly favor independents — if they bother to vote at all.

The national poll in the last general election in 1997 was down by 11 percent. With sleazy disclosures emerging daily at the two tribunals in Dublin Castle, it was obvious that the major parties would lose some support.

After all, they still have some explaining to do. It is now even clearer that an increasing number of Irish voters are just not going to visit the polling booths at all.

The long-term indications for the two major parties are not good even if apathy leaves the percentages much as they are despite declining votes. But for Harney and the Progressive Democrats, her decline is nothing short of disastrous, especially when one recalls that in 1997, she retained her seat by the proverbial whisker.

Now one senator, Helen Keogh, has left the party to defect to Fine Gael. And a Cork county councilor, Peter Kelly, has also threatened to leave unless it develops new policies to reflect changes in Ireland.

Fianna Fail, the Soldiers of Destiny, it seems, will have to grapple with even more serious decisions in the near future.

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