February 16, 2011
By Staff Reporter
By Anne Cadwallader
BELFAST — Every election in Northern Ireland is hard-fought, but this Thursday’s poll is even more significant, with the future of the peace process possibly hanging on the outcome.
If the Rev. Ian Paisley’s DUP trashes David Trimble’s Ulster Unionist Party, it could lead inexorably to the collapse of the Good Friday agreement, perhaps even to a return to violence and death.
On the bright side, the results could deliver a knockout punch to the "Not an Inch" mentality, ending the political ambitions of the "No Surrender" men and paving the way to a stable future.
With the stakes so high in both the Nationalist and Unionist communities, and with more than one career teetering on the brink of ignominious failure, the campaign has been a bitter one.
Indeed, there are in essence two elections for the price of one in Northern Ireland — within Unionism and within Nationalism. The DUP is challenging the larger UUP for supremacy within the Unionist community, while Sinn Fein is doing the same to the SDLP.
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If Trimble loses one or two of the nine seats his party currently holds, expect fireworks at his party’s annual meeting on June 23, with a possible leadership bid by one of the many anti-agreement candidates within the UUP.
Within Nationalism, there are two sets of figures to watch: 24 percent and 16 percent (the SDLP and Sinn Fein’s 1997 Westminster voter support, respectively) and three and two (their number of Westminster seats).
The peace process has survived many a crisis through various forms of fudge. But, like a soccer match, there can be no fudge in the hard figures that will emerge from the ballot box on Friday night.
In soccer, there’s always the possibility of a draw and rematch. Not so in an election. The harsh, pitiless glare of failure will stare some candidates in the face by the weekend.
Here’s a look at the constituencies:
North Down
Will the "have nots" in the loyalist-dominated housing estates vote for the vehemently anti-agreement Robert McCartney, the sitting MP and one-man-band leader of the UK Unionist Party? Or will they join the middle-class "have yachts" and vote for the ex-law lecturer and wife of former RUC Chief Constable, Lady Sylvia Hermon, who is at least nominally pro-agreement?
Strangford
The battle here, again one within unionism, is between the nominally pro-agreement UUP candidate, David McNarry, a leading Orangeman, and the utterly determined DUP contender, Iris Robinson, who has worked the constituency assiduously.
South Antrim
Another seat where two different forms of anti-agreement unionist are slogging it out. Previously a safe UUP seat (at the 1997 election its candidate, Clifford Forsythe, had a 16,000 majority), it was seized by the anti-agreement DUP’s Willie McCrea in a by-election last September.
East Derry
A slugging match between the vehemently anti-agreement sitting Ulster Unionist MP, Willie Ross, and the rabidly anti-agreement DUP candidate, Gregory Campbell. Ross is unashamedly opposed to the concept of power-sharing, even with the SDLP, believing it unworkable and undemocratic.
Lagan Valley
A shoo-in for the UUP’s Jeffrey Donaldson, the so-called "Lagan Valley lurker," because of his apparent willingness to wound, not kill, his party leader in their various battles over the agreement. The only question is whether he can manage to increase his majority, thus giving him more ammunition to hurl at Trimble.
East Belfast
The DUP deputy leader, Peter Robinson, will win again here unless sufficient pro-agreement Alliance Party voters put their crosses on their ballot papers tactically and support the pro-agreement Ulster Unionist candidate, Tim Lemon. In the 1998 Assembly elections, the DUP gained 31 percent of the vote, the UUP 24 and Alliance 18, so it is theoretically possible to unseat Robinson.
East Antrim
Yet another constituency where pro-agreement unionists have little choice but to vote for an anti-agreement candidate. The DUP, and its candidate, Sammy Wilson, vies against the UUP’s anti-agreement Roy Beggs.
Upper Bann
In 1997, the sitting MP Ulster Unionist leader Trimble had a majority of 9,252 over the SDLP and the DUP polled little more than a quarter of his total. But the polarization caused by repeated Drumcree crises and differing views within unionism on the Good Friday agreement could seriously reduce his majority.
North Antrim
This is the Rev. Ian Paisley’s bailiwick and will remain so. He took 37 percent of the poll in 1996, 47 in 1997 and 38 in 1998. The SDLP’s Sean Farren and John Kelly of Sinn Fein are plowing difficult ground.
South Belfast
A constituency whose demography is changing, and therefore one that an enterprising and hard-working Nationalist team could eventually win from the Ulster Unionists. The SDLP’s Alasdair McDonnell had high hopes here of winning the seat from the anti-agreement Martin Smyth of the UUP, but his hopes were damaged by Monica McWilliams of the Women’s Coalition, who will siphon off many of his pro-agreement middle-class vote.
South Down
The SDLP’s Eddie McGrady has held this seat for the SDLP since 1987, assiduously cultivating his local power-base. In that year he defeated Enoch Powell, who had been Ulster Unionist MP for the seat since 1974.
Newry/Armagh
Seamus Mallon’s seat — and one where Sinn Fein is giving him a run for his money. There are 5,000 new voters on the register, most of them Nationalists, and Sinn Fein needs only 3,000 more than its 1998 Assembly total to unseat Mallon.
Foyle
John Hume’s home town of Derry is still devoted to its favorite son, despite Sinn Fein’s best efforts to reduce his majority. The margin between them was 28 percent in 1997 and 22 in 1998.
Mid Ulster
Martin McGuinness territory, and likely to remain so, with 40 percent of the vote or more. He turfed out nationalist hate-figure Willie McCrea of the DUP in 1997, McCrea’s son Ian is taking up the challenge this time. The SDLP is running Eilis Haughey, aged 28, and she has a difficult fight on her hands.
Fermanagh/South Tyrone
One of the most fascinating contests in this election and impossible to call. Sitting MP Ken Maginnis, bowed out, leaving another pro-agreement UUP man James Cooper to inherit his mantle. With the entry of anti-agreement Jim Dixon, an Enniskillen bomb survivor, into the race, Cooper’s chances were damaged, leaving the way open for whichever of the two Nationalist candidates, Michelle Gildernew (Sinn Fein) or Tommy Gallagher (SDLP), is perceived by the electorate to have the better chance.
West Tyrone
The one to watch with only three candidates, sitting anti-agreement MP Willie Thompson of the UUP, Brid Rodgers of the SDLP and Pat Doherty of Sinn Fein. On the figures, Doherty should have it, but Rodgers’ popularity muddies the waters.
West Belfast
Gerry Adams’s stronghold and one is likely to hold onto despite the best efforts of SDLP chairman, Alex Attwood. Republican Sinn Fein is asking the electorate to spoil their vote in favor of political status for its prisoners.
North Belfast
A four-cornered fight involving the UUP, DUP, SDLP and Sinn Fein. Sitting MP Cecil Walker, aged 77, did himself no good at all by a lousy television performance during the campaign. Nigel Dodds of the DUP has also been quick to point out his bad attendance record in the constituency and at Westminster. The SDLP’s Alban Maginnis, the first non-unionist lord mayor of Belfast, will gain votes from Alliance’s decision not to run. Gerry Kelly of Sinn Fein has an active campaign and will secure the republican vote.