Editorial A revolving door?

With the resignation of David Trimble as first minister in the devolved government of Northern Ireland, a note of exasperation has crept into the peace process. The Irish taoiseach, Bertie Ahern, after a spate of meetings at the end of last week in a last-ditch attempt to save the situation, declared that nothing new emerged from the talks, and all the arguments had been heard before. No doubt they will be heard again this week and the following, when everyone reconvenes, post-Trimble, to have another go.

Seamus Mallon, the deputy first minister and SDLP leader who lost his job thanks to Trimble’s resignation, also gave vent to exasperation — aimed mainly at the IRA and Sinn Fein. He said that it was all very well for Sinn Fein to call on the government to respect its democratic mandate, but that in reality it was "the IRA that does not respect that mandate and the obligations that go with it." He hinted that the party might be expelled from the government for not living up to the obligations it undertook by signing the Good Friday agreement.

Unfortunately, Mallon is falling into the same trap as did Trimble. He cannot seriously be suggesting that forcing Sinn Fein from the assembly (even if he could do it, which is doubtful) would bring the prospect of decommissioning any closer. It is too late now to tinker with the idea of a sort of coalition of "moderates", i.e., the UUP and SDLP. Has he forgotten that Sinn Fein is now the largest nationalist party in the North? Without it, the agreement cannot work.

However, it is equally true that without decommissioning, the agreement cannot work either. Not only is it now impossible for Trimble to go back into the assembly as first minister without decisive and convincing action on the issue — it is impossible for any Unionist leader to take that job unless the IRA moves.

The IRA’s commitment to "put its weapons beyond use" was predicated upon the British government moving to the republican movement’s satisfaction on demilitarization and policing. As usual with the IRA, the real deal is often done in secret. We don’t know exactly the terms of that deal with the British, but Sinn Fein and the IRA say that the London government has not fulfilled their part of it. However, we do know one thing: When the Irish people voted in favor of the Good Friday Agreement, they did not envision that its fulfillment would depend on cabals of conspirators arriving at secret pacts with government officials. But for better or worse that is what seems to have happened.

Meanwhile, Trimble’s exit may in reality be a revolving door. The Sinn Fein mandarins do not seem too concerned about the latest crisis, and sound almost reassuring about the arms issue being resolved. They want to save the agreement, if not Trimble. That and Britain’s ability to meet republican demands on policing and demilitarization will determine the outcome of the coming weeks’ negotiations — and the fate of the peace process.