Ulster Unionist rebels Jeffrey Donaldson, Martin Smyth and David Burnside have called for stronger links with the rev. Ian Paisley’s Democratic Unionist Party in a bid to create a common anti-agreement front. Even if the pro-agreement UUP is returned as the biggest party in next week’s elections, it looks likely that the vast majority of unionist Assembly members will be opposed to sharing government with Sinn Fein.
A majority of unionists are now opposed to an agreement that has furnished their constituency with many long-standing demands. The GFA has enshrined the principle of consent and seen the abolition of the Irish republic’s territorial claim to the six counties.
Irish republicans and the IRA have committed themselves to the agreement time and time again, not only in word but also in deed. Republican initiatives designed to reassure the unionist populace of their good intentions have been continually undermined by Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble.
Relations between Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams and Trimble have certainly improved in recent times. However, Trimble’s decision to simply pocket the latest act of IRA decommissioning and offer nothing in return sent out the message that he is still unable to deliver a resounding unionist endorsement of power-sharing.
Unable to ensure the support of unionist voters for what was a hugely significant act of good faith by the IRA, Trimble walked away from a good deal. If sold properly it would have gone a long way in winning back unionist support for the agreement.
Instead, he paved the way for a victory by Paisley’s DUP. Not only did he strengthen the hand of those deeply opposed to the agreement, but he also stood by and allowed the rebels within his own party to flourish.
An opinion poll carried out last year revealed that a majority of unionists said they were not only unwilling to share power with Sinn Fein but with Mark Durkan’s SDLP.
Nationalists and republicans have shown themselves to be able to stretch their constituencies in the interests of peace and progress. This is despite the failure by the British government to honor its commitments to demilitarization, to implement in full the Patten reforms on policing and its decision to suspend the democratic institutions last year.
So where do we go from here? It is clear to most neutral observers that there cannot be a renegotiation of the agreement. A clear majority of people both in the North and in the South voted for the compromise only five years ago. British Prime Minister Tony Blair cannot be allowed to bend to demands for a “new agreement.”
Blair’s handling of the agreement has not inspired confidence among nationalists. His decision to suspend democracy last May did little to resolve the problems that face Trimble. Blair has shown himself capable of facing down stiff opposition among his own supporters for his decision to go to war in Iraq — surely he is capable of standing firm against those who would seek to wreck the hard-won peace in the North.