Some observers are predicting another election, in six months, with the British government hoping the Ulster Unionists pick up more votes and defeat the DUP. Others are hoping a more pragmatic, moderate wing of the DUP emerges.
There is also, however, the possibility that DUP intransigence will lead to stagnation, resulting in nationalist demands that direct rule from London be replaced with joint sovereignty between Dublin and Westminster.
Some within Sinn Fein are already arguing that the DUP will “see sense” and effectively negotiate with the party, leading to a restoration of devolution. It’s known that DUP leaders enjoyed wielding power as ministers.
Others, however, such as the SDLP leader, Mark Durkan, believe “there is no moderate wing of the DUP” in waiting and that the peace process is entering its most dangerous and unpredictable phase yet.
Although 70 percent of the electorate voted for pro-agreement parties and the total of anti-agreement Assembly members stands at 30 out of 108, the same as it did before the election, it appears the British government is not prepared to push ahead with devolution.
British Northern Ireland Secretary Paul Murphy said if it acceded to nationalist requests, it would be “highly unlikely” that the parties would agree to form a new Executive within the required six-weeks allowed.
London is instead going ahead with a “review” of the agreement early in the New Year, and is inviting all the political parties to participate. It has, however, stressed that the review will only consider the workings of the agreement and not its fundamental principles.
The DUP has already held its first meeting with the British government, emerging to say that it wanted guarantees that its agenda would be met and that talks would take place in a context where all the “flaws” in the agreement could be remedied.
DUP leader the Rev. Ian Paisley, now aged 77 and looking frail, emerged from 45 minutes of talks with Murphy to demand a meeting with the British prime minister, Tony Blair, to assure him the party meant business.
Paisley, who was kept out of the media spotlight during the election campaign, said any member of his party who talks to Sinn Fein will be expelled immediately. “I don’t accept the principle that we must sit down with armed terrorists,” he said.
Asked if he could accept the title of first minister, Paisley replied: “Not with IRA/Sinn Fein in government. I believe we have a golden opportunity now to have this matter settled once and for all.
“If you are going to take part in the government of Northern Ireland, you can’t have an armed army to use in blackmailing the British government and trying to get more concessions,” he said.
Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams said: “There can be no renegotiation. That is our position and we make no bones about it. The principle structures and obligations of that agreement cannot and will not be subverted.”
Adams said, however, that continuing dialogue with unionism, particularly the Ulster Unionists, was critical and he respected and accepted the DUP mandate, asking the party to respect his also.
He said it was up to the British and Irish governments to proceed with their commitments on policing, the criminal justice system, demilitarization, the equality agenda, human rights, the Irish language and other matters, including the so-called On the Run republicans.
The DUP deputy leader, Peter Robinson, has denied he belonged to a party of “wreckers,” insisting it had a “positive agenda.”
Meanwhile, the Ulster Unionist Party leader, David Trimble, faces more internal division with arch-rival Jeffrey Donaldson plotting his downfall. The leader’s allies, however, are hitting back with a possible plan to expel Donaldson from the party.
David McNarry, a Trimble loyalist and Assembly member for Strangford, said there will be a “confrontation” with Donaldson and anyone who chose to side with him. It’s understood McNarry has a 60 signatures ready to call an Ulster Unionist Council meeting to oust Donaldson unless he toes the line.