February 16, 2011
By Staff Reporter
By Anne Cadwallader
BELFAST — The political landscape of Northern Ireland was changed radically with significant gains for both Sinn Fein and the DUP in the Westminster polls Thursday, prompting fears for the future of David Trimble’s leadership of the Ulster Unionist Party.
The results suggest that the SDLP faces eventual electoral oblivion unless it undertakes a fundamental rethink of its policies, leadership and structures, as new voters on the electoral register voted overwhelmingly for Sinn Fein.
Although the DUP is claiming victory for the anti-Good Friday agreement camp, three-quarters of the electorate supported pro-agreement parties. The Ulster Unionists, with 216,839 votes, are still the largest party in the North, although its vote has declined by nearly 6 percent.
Barely 5 percent now separates the four major parties in Northern Ireland, with the smallest (now the SDLP) on 21 percent support, and the largest, the UUP, on 26.8. The DUP commands 22.5 of the vote and Sinn Fein 21.7.
Some are calling it the "repartition" of the North. Sinn Fein would prefer "the greening of the west." It has finally broken out of the urban ghettos and its rural redoubts, something the SDLP must swiftly analyze and counter if it wants to regain pole position.
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SDLP vice chairman Tom Kelly has called for an "invigorated leadership." A leading party strategist, he said changes recommended in a strategy document, which emerged after an internal review of the party 18 months ago, needed to be completed.
"We need to be brave enough to complete the change process outlined in that document and that will require an invigorated leadership," Kelly said.
In an apparent criticism of party leader John Hume’s election message, Kelly said: "The SDLP to a large degree tried to lead the electorate to a new type of politics, which has been loosely described as ‘post-nationalist.’ The bald reality is the mood in the nationalist electorate is not ready for that message."
Results:
€ Fermanagh/South Tyrone — Sinn Fein gain (Michelle Gildernew from Ken Maginnis, resigned and replaced by James Cooper). The icing on the cake for Sinn Fein, by just 53 votes, 20 years after the death of Bobby Sands on hunger strike. A legal challenge is likely from the UUP (whose vote was down 17.5 percent).
€ Upper Bann — UUP hold (David Trimble). The DUP candidate, David Simpson, came close to defeating the leader of the Ulster Unionist Party in this sectarian cauldron. The DUP vote was up 18 percent and the UUP’s down 10.
€ West Tyrone — Sinn Fein gain (Pat Doherty). Two weeks ago, an SDLP victory was assumed inevitable by most political pundits, but Brid Rodgers fell to third place.
€ North Down — UUP gain (Lady Sylvia Hermon) from UKUP (Robert McCartney). A rare victory for Trimble’s party in seeing off his bete noir, Robert McCartney, the man who took great delight in baiting him in Stormont debates.
€ Strangford — DUP gain (Iris Robinson) from UUP (John Taylor resigned, replaced by David McNarry). Some tactical voting by nationalists, who must have swallowed very hard before supporting the UUP candidate, David McNarry, was not enough.
€ South Antrim — UUP gain (David Burnside) from DUP (Willie McCrea). A far higher turnout than at the September 2000 by-election just deprived the DUP’s Willie McCrea of his newly won seat. Burnside becomes a potential anti-agreement leadership candidate.
€East Derry — DUP gain (Gregory Campbell) from UUP (Willie Ross).
€ Newry/Armagh – SDLP hold (Seamus Mallon). An uncomfortably close battle for the deputy leader of the SDLP and deputy first minister.
€ South Belfast — UUP hold (Martin Smyth). Even without Northern Ireland Women’s Coalition candidate, Monica McWilliams’s intervention, Alasdair McDonnell of the SDLP would not have seized this seat from the UUP.
€ West Belfast – Sinn Fein hold (Gerry Adams). Adams is now 20,000 votes ahead of the SDLP.
€ North Belfast — DUP gain (Nigel Dodds) from UUP (Cecil Walker).
€ North Antrim — DUP hold (Ian Paisley).
€ South Down — SDLP hold (Eddie McGrady).
€ Foyle — SDLP hold (John Hume). As popular as ever in his hometown.
€ Mid-Ulster — Sinn Fein hold (Martin McGuinness). The seat of the DUP’s Willie McCrea has become a Sinn Fein certainty.
€ Lagan Valley — UUP hold (Jeffrey Donaldson). Donaldson’s slight majority (1.1 percent) means he can conspire from within a safe bivouac against his party leader and the agreement.
€ East Belfast — DUP hold (Peter Robinson).
€ East Antrim — UUP hold (Roy Beggs).
A strong challenge from the DUP’s Sammy Wilson.