IRA arms move within days?

With the Sinn Fein leadership returning from holidays, the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning has expanded its ranks in recent days, taking on an additional member.
The appointment Monday of Tauno Nieminen was seen as a precursor to major acts of decommissioning. It is thought that the Finnish brigadier general is required to assist with an increased workload in the coming weeks.
The size of the IRA’s arsenal, while the subject of much discussion, is almost impossible to accurately quantify.
Irish and British security analysts claim that the organization possesses 650 assault rifles, two tons of Semtex explosive, 20 heavy caliber machineguns, a dozen general purpose machineguns, hundreds of revolvers and automatic pistols and about 40 rocket propelled grenade launchers.
Republicans meanwhile point out that even experienced IRA members cannot be sure of the exact amount of weaponry that remains in storage around the country. Some speculate that some arms may have been stolen or moved by IRA members who defected to the Real IRA and Continuity IRA in the late 1990s.
In some instances, individual IRA quartermasters are the only people who truly know what weapons are at their disposal. The defection of Real IRA founder Michael McKevitt in 1997 is thought to have led to the transfer of some hardware to the dissident grouping.
Decommissioning was never intended to be an exact science however, and the real significance of the General John De Chastelain’s work lies in its symbolism.
While skeptics greeted last month’s IRA statement, in which it instructed its members to “dump arms,” as being no different from previous conclusions to IRA campaigns in which it stood down its operatives, actual decommissioning of weapons has never before occurred at the end of an IRA campaign.
While the IRA once said it would never decommission any of its weaponry, it now stands of the brink taking every bullet and every ounce out of action.
Whether this has any impact on Ian Paisley’s Democratic Unionist Party is another matter entirely.
Prior to the return to Ireland of the Colombia Three earlier this month, the DUP went to Downing Street to confront Tony Blair.
The demilitarization of certain parts of South Armagh, coupled with the news that the Royal Irish Regiment was to be disbanded, had unsteadied Paisley. He raged at Blair saying that unless these “concessions” were taken off the table, the DUP would refuse to ever agree to power sharing.
Its threats about vetoing power sharing until the British government rethinks demilitarization, have not unnerved Sinn Fein however.
Indeed, it could be argued that the package offered by the British government is more than sufficient for republicans at this present juncture. Some observers suggest that any support Sinn Fein had for a Northern Assembly was only ever half-hearted.
Given that it has now secured demilitarization, the disbandment of the RIR and legislation allowing so-called “on-the-runs” back into the North, the republican movement is quite chuffed with itself.
Why rush into devolved government if it means having to take the thorny policing decision? Why not enjoy the goodwill springing from the IRA’s recent statement?
Jim Gibney, senior republican and close ally of Gerry Adams, was asked by nationalist historian Brian Feeney some years back where he saw the republican movement in 10 years’ time. Gibney, a key Sinn Fein strategist, made no reference to Stormont instead saying he hoped the party would have a sizeable number of TDs in Leinster House.
Ian Paisley cannot veto that. So where now for the DUP?
No doubt the party would prefer some time to think about its options. With reports due from the International Monitoring Commission in October and January, it will wait until the New Year at least before contemplating anything in the way of substantive movement.
If the IMC delivers the news that the IRA has done good on its promises, then big decisions lie ahead — not least for Paisley.
Interestingly, the talk of weapons photography that dominated the political debate nine months ago, has since slid off the agenda. While the DUP still speaks of the need for transparency in the decommissioning process, it no longer demands that the IRA pose for the cameras.
Putting aside the angry reaction of Paisley to demilitarization and the side-show that is the Colombia Three, the DUP’s initial response to the IRA statement of July 28 was muted. Avoiding the language usually deployed in the past – such as “weasel words” – it chose to adopt a wait-and-see approach.
All might suggest that the DUP, though loathe to admit it publicly, is gearing itself up for government. While it would surely like to carry out this process in its own time, Sinn Fein has said, and the two governments would certainly seem to agree, the party cannot take forever when it comes to assessing where it stands with the republican movement.
With De Chastelain and Andrew Sens expected back in Belfast today this week, along with their new colleague Nieminen, events could soon indeed force the DUP’s hand.
Meanwhile, Irish justice minister Michael McDowell has stated that the IRA will not be considered a legal organization even if it dump arms.
McDowell, who speaking on RTE, said that the IRA was an illegal organization and would remain so unless it changed or ditched its constitution.
The IRA’s claim to be the legitimate government of the Republic was “treasonable,” and without any change to this view on the part of the organization, membership of the IRA would remain a criminal offense.
McDowell’s view would appear to be at some odds with that of Taoiseach Bertie Ahern who has expressed the view that the IRA could easily enough transform itself into an old comrades’ association.