The decision by UUP rebel Assembly members Jeffrey Donaldson, Norah Beare and Arlene Foster to join the anti-agreement party on Monday now brings the DUP’s Assembly seat total to 33. If a power-sharing executive were to be restored now it would include seven unionist ministers and only five nationalist ministers.
Under the D’Hondt Assembly voting system, enshrined in the Good Friday agreement, cabinet ministers are appointed with regard to the respective strengths of the parties.
Political analysts believe this may pave the way for a return to devolution. The DUP, strengthened by the arrival of Donaldson and his two colleagues, will now be able to argue for a return to government and claim to its own supporters that unionist majority rule has been restored.
“The DUP are in a perfect position to go into government, said one seasoned political observer.
“The fact that seven seats on the executive will go to unionists means the party can say that they’ve returned to unionist majority rule,” he said.
“Donaldson is likely to get a cabinet seat. The Ulster Unionists are deluding themselves if they think the defections change nothing. If the DUP plays its cards right, then I don’t see the UUP regaining any ground electorally for at least another ten years.
“Nationalists in some ways have been hoisted by their own petards after arguing for things such as the D’Hondt voting system, it will prove difficult for the nationalists parties to now argue for changes to prevent such a strong unionist majority emerging on the executive,” he added.
Donaldson’s move to Paisley’s party had been expected for some time and comes as little surprise to most unionists. Donaldson had already signaled his intention to join the DUP negotiating team during the forthcoming review of the Good Friday agreement. Donaldson has consistently opposed David Trimble’s leadership of the UUP and has sought on numerous occasions to depose the UUP boss.
Donaldson’s decision to finally cross the floor and join Paisley is recognition of the fact that he is unable to muster enough support within the UUP to overthrow Trimble. By joining the DUP he knows that he may never enjoy the leadership of either of the two biggest unionist parties.
The DUP regard Donaldson as a significant scalp. He, and his two colleagues — Lagan Valley MLA Beare and Fermanagh-South Tyrone MLA Foster, reduces Trimble’s party share of Assembly seats to a mere 24.
Sources close to Trimble are hesitant to suggest, as some observers have, that Donaldson’s departure actually strengthens the hand of the UUP leader. Some have argued that now Donaldson is outside the fold, Trimble will be able to take a stronger pro-agreement line.
One senior unionist source said that it was a sad day for the UUP but that it was inevitable given that Donaldson had refused to toe the party line with regard to the British and Irish governments’ Joint Declaration in May last year.
How Donaldson fares personally is now open to question. He has alienated a large section of the UUP by joining forces with Paisley. Many within the UUP, including one of Donaldson’s fellow travelers, David Burnside, regard the DUP with contempt and while critical of Trimble could never countenance aligning themselves with the party.
This means it is highly unlikely that Donaldson will ever be able to return to the UUP. It is also unlikely that Donaldson will ever attain a leadership position within the DUP. While Paisley’s followers have welcomed the dissident into the ranks many are cautious of him. The fundamentalist Free Presbyterian camp is to the right of Donaldson and would find it difficult to lend him its full support. Likewise the more pragmatic Peter Robinson/Nigel Dodds wing of the party is not going to allow Donaldson room to become a potential leadership figure.
Robinson and Dodds have worked tirelessly over the last 20 years to turn the DUP into a modern party with broad unionist support. It is they who will inherit Paisley’s position when he finally departs from the political scene not Donaldson.