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Nationalist Euro hopes scuppered by Paisley move

February 16, 2011

By Staff Reporter

Nationalist and republican party strategists had secretly harbored hopes, that if Paisley, who’s 77, were to run again, a split vote between the SDLP and Sinn Fein could have resulted in two nationalist seats.
Three MEPs are elected to the European Assembly from the North under a proportional representation voting system.
Paisley has relied on a huge personal vote in past European elections. Observers believe that his absence from the electoral race, while reducing unionist voter turnout, will mean a wider dispersal of votes among unionist candidates.
Current UUP MEP Jim Nicholson struggled to fend off the challenge of Sinn Fein’s Mitchel McLaughlin in 1999’s election and is thought to be particularly vulnerable considering his party’s reduced showing in November’s Northern elections.
Increased support for the DUP, combined with Paisley’s legendary personal vote, could have reduced the UUP candidate’s share of the vote to the point where two strong nationalist candidates may have snatched a seat each. This now appears unlikely and the unionist vote will most probably split more evenly between the DUP and UUP candidates.
Paisley, the most successful candidate in the North to have ever stood for election to Strasbourg, routinely outpolled his nearest unionist rivals with unassailable margins. His larger-than-life personality played well in the three-horse race and he could always be relied upon to muster huge support among unionists.
His announcement last week had not been expected, though the DUP leader had become noticeably less involved in party work during the recent Assembly election campaign.
Paisley’s departure from Europe may have dented his party’s chances of outpolling the UUP and it is expected that his successor will not be able to call upon the same level of support as the DUP leader.
Several names have already been thrown into the hat. Among them are his son Ian Paisley Jr., Willie McCrea and Nigel Dodds. An outside bet is the party’s latest catch from the Ulster Unionists — Lagan Valley MP Jeffrey Donaldson.
Whoever decides to run for the DUP it looks likely that the June elections will return, as usual, two unionists and one nationalist.
Running for Sinn Fein is former Stormont health minister Barbara de Brun. Speculation still surrounds the possible SDLP candidate. Former party leader and Nobel peace prizewinner John Hume is tipped to run again, but the party may be tempted to bring in a fresh candidate.

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