New arms deadline?

By Anne Cadwallader

BELFAST — Pressure is mounting to break the deadlock in the peace process by May 22, the target deadline set by the Good Friday agreement for decommissioning to be completed, with both the British and Irish governments stepping up the pace of political talks.

The mood in Belfast, however, is resolutely gloomy, with neither republicans nor unionists giving much credence to moves on finding a solution to the paramilitary-arms-decommissioning impasse that has dogged the process.

Still, some observers believe that both the UUP leader, David Trimble, and the Sinn Fein president, Gerry Adams, have too much to lose to allow the agreement to expire and that both sides will have to compromise.

A number of permutations on timing and assurances over a start to decommissioning are being discussed, including a possible redefinition of what it means to put arms "beyond use," along with such "confidence-building" measures as a statement from the IRA to the effect that its war is over, as well pushing back the timetable for decommissioning by two years, to April 2002.

The taoiseach, Bertie Ahern, says he’s determined the agreement will become fully operational again. Talks are being held between Dublin and London to get the power-sharing Executive and Assembly back in place by May 22, the second anniversary of the referenda approving the deal.

Every party must bear in mind that, by the time the four-year review of the agreement falls due in May 2002, they will have to give an account to the electorate of their successes or failure in implementing the agreement," Ahern said Monday during the Fianna Fail Easter commemoration in Dublin.

But while Ahern expressed confidence he also said it was "not going to be easy." The taoiseach said he had made "some progress" in his talks with the British government but acknowledged there had been "no fundamental breakthrough."

"It does give me confidence, on the other side of Easter, we can make progress. It is not going to be easy. We don’t have a simple resolution," he said.

Mandelson out?

The taoiseach’s comments come amid speculation that the British Northern Ireland secretary, Peter Mandelson, will be gone from his position by the summer, after a disappointing time at the helm in Belfast.

British newspapers are reporting from Westminster that Mandelson may go in order to head up a new group preparing for a British general election, and that Mo Mowlam, his predecessor as Northern Ireland Secretary, may be ousted from the British cabinet entirely.

For his part, the British prime minister, Tony Blair, said he believes progress in the North is still possible.

"I believe it can be done," he said. "It will need patience and it will need courage.

"When people say that the Good Friday agreement is over, they have got it badly wrong. No one from the very beginning of this process has put forward a realistic alternative. The agreement remains the only show in town."

There was no breakthrough reported, however, during day-long talks at Hillsborough Castle on April 18, when Blair met all the Northern Ireland political parties. He’s expected back in Belfast to continue those talks before long.

IRA message

Meanwhile, this year’s IRA Easter message was considered to be something of a holding statement, with no mention of decommissioning, but a renewed pledge by the IRA to work toward achieving a "permanent peace" in Ireland.

The IRA also accused the British government of continuing its war against republicans and said the British forces were still seeking a military victory. The IRA statement said ongoing covert surveillance was still being carried out by British intelligence officers in republican areas.

"Those who seek a military victory need to understand that this cannot and will not happen," it said.

The IRA again blamed the UK government for the suspension of the power-sharing executive at Stormont in February. It said the move had highlighted a "lack of political will to bring about meaningful change."

Sinn Fein’s Adams said this week that people’s hopes of rescuing the stalled peace process were dimming.

"The peace process is in serious difficulty," he said. "The hope and expectations of recent years, battered by a succession of unionist-inspired crises, are now at an all-time low.

"If Tony Blair really believes that the agreement is the only way forward, then now is the time for him to fulfill his responsibilities and make politics work by quickly and irreversibly, restoring the political institutions."

Sinn Fein’s assemblyman in north Belfast, Gerry Kelly, also said the suspension of the North’s power-sharing Executive had brought many nationalists and republicans "to their lowest ebb in years."

At an Easter commemoration in Dublin on Sunday, Martin McGuinness of Sinn Fein said, "A lot of the hope and optimism that many people had throughout the course of the process has been severely dented by the appearance of a British government supporting, effectively, the rejectionist unionists."

Asked about the IRA’s Easter statement, McGuinness said: "There is a lot of disappointment, there is a lot of anger that the British government on Feb. 11 effectively moved to endorse a Unionist veto. This isn’t just within Sinn Féin, this goes right across the whole of nationalist Ireland."

At another Easter commemoration, in Belfast, it was notable that veteran republican Billy McKee, a former IRA leader in Belfast, stood shoulder to shoulder with Republican Sinn Fein leader Ruairi O’Bradaigh.

At a Dublin RSF commemoration, attendees were told that the ideals of 1916 had been replaced by the British-conceived agenda of Stormont. RSF ard comhairle member Michael McManus said the "corrupt and morally bankrupt free state political parties and pseudo-republican parties have combined to copperfasten continued British occupation by acceptance of the Stormont agreement of Easter 1998."