Almost $600,000 has been traded on the dictator’s future by investors and gamblers from all over the world with www.tradesports.com.
On Feb. 19, it was giving him a 28 percent chance of lasting beyond the end of next month and a 71 percent chance of still being in power at the end of June.
Most of the company’s business involves sporting and financial matters, but Hussein’s survival is proving the hot contract in the political and entertainment areas.
TradeSports is a platform for people to trade between themselves. They set the equilibrium price for the contract and the company charges a transaction fee of about 1.5 percent.
Chief executive John Delaney said they had about 9,000 members and $190 million has been traded on the exchange since it started 11 months ago.
There is a significant difference of opinion between U.S. traders and their colleagues around the world about the disctator’s prospects.
“U.S. traders seem to believe the probability of him going at any particular date is higher than European or Asian traders, so Asian and European traders tend to be sellers and the Americans tend to be buyers,” Delaney said. “That is an interesting dynamic.”
Most of the customers are working in the world’s trading and financial centers. About 25 percent of the cash is staked by women traders.
TradeSports also has offers on the chances of the UN passing a second resolution on Iraq, the likelihood of President Bush being reelected, the prospect of Osama Bin Laden being captured, and possible Oscar winners.
The company, which is based in the Park West Business Park in the southwest of the city, employs 20 and is wholly Irish owned.