February 17, 2011
By Staff Reporter
This result is usually reversed at the subsequent Dail election when voters take a much more considered view of the party they are voting for. By-elections can prove fertile ground for independent candidates who choose to campaign on local issues.
An Irish government has not won a midterm by-election since the early 1980s.
Fianna Fail, despite public protestations to the contrary, will not be particularly surprised or worried if it loses Friday’s two elections.
In Kildare North, former Finance Minister Charlie McCreevy’s seat is up for grabs. McCreevy resigned from the Dail when he took up the job as a European commissioner last year.
In his place stands Fianna Fail candidate Aine Brady, sister to government chief whip Tom Kitt and a schoolteacher. Brady is involved in a real dogfight with expectations that the battle will go right down to the wire.
Labor’s Paddy MacNamara is many people’s favorite to clinch the seat. The 40-year-old, originally from County Tipperary, is hoping to pick up transfers from Fine Gael’s Darren Scully.
MacNamara’s party leader, Pat Rabbitte has gone out on a limb in championing a Labor-Fine Gael voting pact in recent months. Rabbitte is strongly opposed to the idea of Labor teaming up with Fianna Fail in a new coalition government and instead believes Labor’s fortunes lie in forming a strong front with Fine Gael.
If the so-called “Mullingar accord” between the parties fails to materialize in significant vote transfers Rabbitte’s plans will be called into question.
Trade unionists have expressed concerns about any decision to rule out coalition with Fianna Fail, while Fianna Fail’s Dermot Ahern recently suggested that he believed such a coalition could work.
Independent candidate Catherine Murphy is tipped to do well and many bookies believe she will top the poll. Based in Leixlip, Murphy has built up a strong base and has represented the area for 17 years.
Murphy left the Labor Party in 2003 in acrimonious circumstances. She claims that she had agreed to stand aside from the 2002 Dail election race in exchange for a Seanad seat and that the party reneged on the deal. She was a member of Democratic Left (as was Rabbitte) before it merged with Labor in 1999.
The Progressive Democrats’ Kate Walsh is also expected to poll strongly. Based in Celbridge, she has strong local support. Meanwhile the Green Party’s J.J. Power, who comes from a family of strong Fianna Fail supporters, is also in contention.
In the Meath constituency, many are predicting the contest to be mainly between Fianna Fail’s Shane Cassells and Fine Gael’s Shane McEntee. The seat became vacant after former Fine Gael leader John Bruton became the EU’s ambassador to the United States.
Of most interest to observers will be the performance of Sinn Fein’s Joe Reilly. Reilly did well in 2002 and narrowly missed out on a seat — coming in sixth in the five-seat constituency. While his core vote of around 6,000 is expected to hold up despite the recent onslaught against Sinn Fein, he is not expected to pick up the votes necessary to have a credible chance of securing the seat.
High on the agenda for the candidates in Meath is the proposed M3 motorway. Government plans to route the road near the historic Hill of Tara have encountered fierce criticism from most of the candidates.
Labor is running Dominic Hannigan, the Progressive Democrats’ candidate is Sirena Campbell, while Fergal O’Byrne is flying the Green Party flag.