Polls reveal Fianna Fail may lead alone

By Andrew Bushe

DUBLIN — Taoiseach Bertie Ahern is not only set to head the next Irish government, but he may be on the brink of taking Fianna Fail to its greatest victory in a quarter of a century, according to the first two opinion polls of the general election campaign.

Ahern and party officials are talking down the possibility prospect of a go-it-alone Fianna Fail administration in case the prospect scares off voters or leads to complacency among supporters before the May 17 election.

The taoiseach is maintaining that when the situation in each of the constituencies is examined, an overall majority is not possible.

First, the Irish Times/MRBI poll gave Fianna Fail 45 percent of first-preference votes and then the Irish Independent/IMS poll showed 48 percent support.

Both used simulated ballot papers for the first time in their sampling in all 48 constituencies.

In both polls a possible alternative “Rainbow” coalition of Fine Gael, Labor and the Greens was trailing well behind with 38 percent, according to MRBI, and 36 percent in the IMS poll.

Fine Gael is struggling with between 21 and 23 percent support and its leader, Micheal Noonan, has been given his worst approval rating, at 30 percent, since replacing John Bruton.

Fianna Fail hasn’t received a single-party mandate since Jack Lynch’s 1977 general election landslide. In the 1997 general election, Fianna Fail received just over 39 percent of the first-preference votes that gave them 77 seats out of 166.

A crucial factor for Fianna Fail in maximizing seats will be the transfers that it can garner from opposition supporters.

Analysts calculate that if Fianna Fail gets 48 percent first preferences, it would mean a bottom line of 80-81 seats rising to 86 if the transfers go well. But bad transfers in 1982, when the party got over 47 percent, left it with just 81 seats.

The polls are showing crucial changes in voter habits.

Previously Fianna Fail lost votes as the campaign intensified, but this does not appear to happening this time.

There are also an increasing number of transfers going to Fianna Fail from other parties — it is getting between a quarter and a third of the opposition transfers.

The polls will mark a critical turning point in the campaign.

Subsequent polls will be carefully examined by strategists to see whether they start a bandwagon effect as the apparent winner attracts more support or if the prospect of a Fianna Fail overall majority conjures up worries about a return to sleaze and a consequent drop in support.

The opposition has been stressing what it sees as the danger of Fianna Fail being returned on its own and the Fianna Fail’s partners in coalition, the Progressive Democrats, aggressively made the point with new posters that proclaimed, “One-Party Government? No Thanks.”

The economy has remained the dominant issue of the campaign despite opposition efforts to switch the focus to quality-of-life issues such as health care, education, crime, traffic and other infrastructure deficits.

Department of Finance figures for the first four months of the year cast doubt on all the spending promises. There was a deficit of euro 112 million compared with a euro 1.12 billion surplus a year earlier.

The figure is far worse than the surplus of euro 450 million that had been expected. Government spending is up about 20 percent on the year.

The exchequer figures will be blown further off course by a massive bill pending from the huge response to the SSIA thrift scheme and a further extra demand for public sector increases from bench-marking. All the indications are that the next five years has to involve a mix of cuts, borrowing and higher taxes.

Custard pie attacks by women on both the taoiseach and Noonan relieved the economic debate in the campaign but raised fears about security.

Others issues that have captured headlines were a reference to some suicide victims being “selfish bastards” by Sports Minister Jim McDaid and his subsequent apology and the warmth of an encounter in Castlebar between the Taoiseach and former EU Commissioner Padraig Flynn, who is due to appear before the Flood Tribunal.

Meanwhile, Mary Harney issued strenuous denials and began defamation proceeding against Magill magazine about an article that incorrectly claimed the Flood Tribunal wanted her to make extensive disclosure of her financial affairs and Attorney General Michael McDowell launched a broadside against the taoiseach’s Campus Ireland sports complex, describing it as a development reminiscent of the regime of Romanian dictator Nicol’ Ceaucescu.