Republic poised for playoff

By Mark Jones

DUBLIN — First the good news: The Republic of Ireland are closer than at any time to qualifying for a major soccer finals during manager Mick McCarthy’s five years in charge. The bad news is that team captain Roy Keane may not be available for either World Cup playoff game against Iran.

Though the Iranians should pose nothing like the threat of, say, Portugal or Holland, who Ireland coped with superbly in their qualifying group, the possible loss of Keane for one or both of the vital playoffs is a blow to McCarthy.

The hard information regarding the midfielder’s knee injury, which has kept him out of action for Manchester United for the last three weeks, has been sparse. Variously described as “niggling,” as well as a problem that could keep him on the sidelines until Christmas, confusion reigns. However, it seems almost certain that Keane will not be fit enough for the first leg of the playoff at Lansdowne Road on Saturday.

“I think he will make one of Ireland’s games,” said Manchester United’s manager, Alex Ferguson, and in the absence of any communication from the player himself, McCarthy has suggested already that he is encouraged by the club’s decision to allow Keane to travel to Dublin, and that he would settle for being able to select his captain for the second game in Tehran a week from Thursday.

If the Irish performances in finishing second behind group winners Portugal at the qualifying stage were highly impressive — the 1-0 victory over Holland was by far the most significant result during McCarthy’s stewardship — no player has made more of a contribution than Keane.

Even if his relationship with the manager is cool at best, and even if his form for his club has hardly been outstanding this season, Keane’s general demeanor in the green shirt of Ireland has been that of someone hellbent on reaching another World Cup finals following his previous experience at USA ’94.

At difficult moments, Keane has held the team together with his irresistible combination of skill and sheer determination. He is the engine of McCarthy’s side, and without him a contest against Iran becomes all the more difficult.

Equally, injuries have already deprived McCarthy of Mark Kennedy and Damien Duff, while Kevin Kilbane is also doubtful because of an ankle problem. With the pressure on the Irish to take at least a two-goal lead to Tehran, the buildup to Saturday’s game has been anything but smooth.

And what of Iran? They are skillful, with one or two very talented players, but based on their recent performances in the Asian playoffs against the U’, they are not now as strong as the team that qualified for the World Cup finals in France in 1998. The main threat comes from midfielder Karim Bagheri — nicknamed The Shah in his own country — and goalscorer Ali D’i, but the Iranians like time on the ball and they are bound to find it difficult to cope with Ireland’s physical, pressing game.

In fact, midfielder Mark Kinsella, who played alongside Bagheri at the English Premiership club Charlton for a season, doesn’t rate the Iranian.

“I know he’s a bit of legend in Iran,” Kinsella said, “but I wouldn’t be worried about him. He’s a very good passer of the ball and he has a powerful shot, but there are games when you don’t see a lot of him. He hides.”

The key has to be Saturday’s first encounter. Obviously, the Irish have to win and they are dominant enough to take a three-goal advantage on to the second match, then McCarthy’s players, with or without Roy Keane, should be professional enough to keep Iran under wraps even in Tehran’s Azadi Stadium in front of 120,000 home fans.

With the proven quality of Robbie Keane, Niall Quinn, Jason McAteer, Kenny Cunningham and Kinsella, as well as the confidence that has been created by going four games unbeaten against Portugal and Holland, Ireland are strong favorites to qualify for next year’s finals in Japan and Korea.

However, it can’t be forgotten that the Irish record in playoffs is abysmal. In Jack Charlton’s last game in charge, Holland won 2-0 to deprive his team of a place in the 1996 European championships. Then it was McCarthy’s turn to experience the pain of playoff defeat when Belgium won over two legs to book their place at the 1998 World Cup. And, more recently, and even more painfully, Turkey won through the away-goals rule to qualify for the finals of Euro 2000.

So most of the current players know what it’s like to fall at the final hurdle, and, presumably, their desire will be all the more intense on this occasion. McCarthy has already intimated that he wants to continue as manager until the European championships in 2004, but for Roy Keane and Niall Quinn, next year’s World Cup will be their final roll of the dice.

Losing to Turkey two years ago was depressing enough. Losing to Iran would be an embarrassment after all the team and its manager have achieved during this campaign. It shouldn’t happen. Ireland should qualify. Whether they qualify comfortably may hinge on Keane’s knee.