The Price of Devolved Government

Once more, UUP leader David Trimble is expected to have to face down critics hostile to the UUP’s current governmental role. The reasons have all been well rehearsed by now. Once it was the IRA’s failure to decommission that had the Unionists in a tizzy. That old bugbear has been forgotten about. Now it is difficulties over the alleged activities of the IRA, and accusations that it has violated its ceasefire.
Trimble brings to the table a concession from the British, who have awarded him a ceasefire monitor, the role of which will be to independently judge whether the paramilitaries still technically on ceasefire are breaking the rules. The monitor, who will be named within days, will actually have no power other than to advise the government. The real power lies with the head of the police force and the secretary of state for Northern Ireland. In the end, only their opinion matters. So why bother with a third overseer?
Unionists need a comfort blanket. They do not trust the police. Nor do they trust the government. This is a remarkable turnaround for a party that once tied its very identity to that of the police force and to the link with Britain. But the question is, will a powerless monitor, adding yet another level of bureaucracy to an already overburdened peace process, make a difference? Or will the forces hostile to Trimble cast aside this latest concession and finally drive the dagger home?
Up to now, Trimble has been blessed with his opponents. Those who, like Martin Smyth, have some integrity are inept. Those who, like Jeffery Donaldson, are clever and ambitious have no guts. That is, anti-agreement forces have no one of stature to lead them. The reason has not only do with personality problems among the aspirants to Trimble’s throne. They well know that leaders need somewhere to go. And the reality is that the full implementation of the Good Friday agreement is the only destination in town. How many times does this need to be repeated?
The British and Irish governments both know that any serious attempt to appease anti-agreement forces would lead to a withdrawal of Nationalists from the process and its collapse. Unionists have to learn to live with the fact there will be no repeat of 1974, and the bringing down of the last power-sharing agreement thanks to Unionist intransigence. A settlement now must involve Sinn Fein and the SDLP. That is the price of devolved government. Unionists must decide if that is what they want. Or would they prefer direct rule, with the Irish government having an ever-stronger input into how Northern Ireland is run?