Trimble faces challenge

It’s the 12th such meeting of the council since the UUP agreed to share power with Sinn Fein in 1999. If as few as 36 of the 900 delegates switch sides, Trimble’s days as party leader could be over.
He faces a challenge from the anti-agreement supporters of three dissident members of parliament — Jeffrey Donaldson, David Burnside and Martin Smyth — over attempts to discipline them for their protests against party policy.
There is now such bitter hostility and rivalry between the pro- and anti-agreement camps that, irrespective of Saturday’s vote, the party could split.
Many fear that could herald the gradual disintegration of the agreement itself and a prolonged period of direct rule in Northern Ireland from London, which would be anathema to the SDLP and Sinn Fein.
The anti-agreement camp wants the UUP to reject the Joint Declaration — proposals drawn up by the British and Irish governments for the continued implementation of the agreement.
One of their strongest causes is opposition to the proposed four-person Independent Monitoring Commission, a body that would ensure all parties to the agreement kept their pledges to honor it in its entirety.
The UUP is concerned that, as Dublin can nominate one of the body’s four members, the Irish government could arguably be said to have a role in the internal government of Northern Ireland.
It’s thought the final proposals brought forward by London would remove any Dublin influence in the workings of the Stormont Assembly, at the behest of the UUP and in order to boost Trimble’s chances of surviving Saturday’s vote.
There is increasing nationalist concern in the North at reports that Dublin will acquiesce in this deal.
Ulster Unionists want the British government to separate the functions of the Irish and U.S. commissioners from any matters affecting the “internal affairs of Northern Ireland.”
This would mean the Irish and U.S. observers would be responsible for monitoring paramilitary matters, which would bring them into potential conflict with Sinn Fein, while the two British nominees would monitor political parties.
The dissidents have also several other objections to several security measures in the Joint Declaration.
At Saturday’s meeting, the anti-agreement dissidents will propose that no disciplinary action be taken against the three MPs, even though they acted against a previous vote of the council.
It’s virtually certain that Trimble will himself propose a counter-resolution, pointing out that the dissidents had, in his terms, ignored the council’s previous decision to hold fire on rejecting the Joint Declaration.
Trimble said the meeting would be “a defining movement for the party” and predicted he would win the day, saying the UUP was “settled” in its view on the way forward.