February 16, 2011
By Staff Reporter
Most interest lies in the relative strengths of the pro-agreement Ulster Unionist Party and its anti-agreement archrivals in the Rev. Ian Paisley’s Democratic Unionist Party, which is pledged to renegotiate the 1998 deal.
Whether Sinn Fein manages to overtake the SDLP in the nationalist camp is another battle that will be keenly watched in London, Dublin and the U.S. with both parties confidently predicting victory.
The counting of votes begins tomorrow at 4 a.m. New York time and final results should be known by noon on Friday New York time — depending on whether there are demands for recounts in close contests.
The results are almost impossible to predict, both because there are no credible opinion polls and because of the vagaries of the complicated proportional representational voting system
The nadir of the election campaign, or its zenith, depending on your point of view, came when the leaders of the UUP and DUP came head-to-head in a dramatic verbal confrontation outside the UUP headquarters.
It came to be known as the “Fuss at the Bus” because it began when the DUP, somewhat cheekily, drove a truck bearing its latest billboard right up the UUP offices.
The UUP leader, David Trimble, emerged from the building to confront the DUP men and a 10-minute verbal battle ensued began with much finger pointing and exchanging of insults.
Trimble accused Paisley, the DUP leader, of running away while the DUP deputy leader, Peter Robinson, yelled in his face that he was a “failure” and that the electorate would desert him in droves.
Paisley, now 77 and not looking well, took a back seat during the exchanges, which stopped short of physical confrontation. Trimble said later that it had been a deliberately provocative act and he had no choice but to accept the duel.
Opinions were divided later both on who won the verbal sparring and if it had galvanized the electorate or made voters even more disillusioned and less likely to vote.
The most interesting development in the last days of the election campaign was divisions between the parties over transfer votes.
The SDLP is asking voters to transfer to other pro-agreement candidates, unionist or nationalist, after voting SDLP. Sinn Fein is asking its supporters to give second preference votes to the SDLP and then to pro-agreement unionists.
The picture is not nearly as clear in the Ulster Unionist camp, however, with party leader David Trimble failing to reciprocate by asking his voters to transfer to pro-agreement parties.
It becomes even more complicated when the anti-agreement UUP candidates, such as Jeffrey Donaldson, who are running on an ostensibly pro-agreement ticket, are taken into consideration. Some observers believe Donaldson will be in the position of “king-maker” should the overall UUP result be disappointing.
Trimble and two other leading UUP men, Sir Reg Empey and Michael McGimpsey, have advised their supporters to give transfer votes to other pro-union parties, without saying whether they should differentiate between pro- and anti-agreement candidates.
SDLP leader Mark Durkan has appealed to unionists, over the heads of their leaders, to transfer to pro-agreement parties — none of which, he said, was more pro-agreement than the SDLP.
Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams said that in his view there was a “small but significant amount of more far-sighted unionists” who were going to give his party preferences.
“Whether they like our politics or not, and an increasing number of them do, progressive people know we have taken risks for peace,” he said, adding that the party had canvassed in many areas where no republican had ever done so before.
Adams also claimed that many SDLP voters were dissatisfied with the SDLP’s “negative, carping and begrudging campaign.”
The SDLP director of elections, Brid Rodgers, responded immediately. “Spin Fein are again making ludicrous claims about the SDLP,” she said, adding the party’s campaign to protect the agreement and stop the DUP hit home with nationalist voters.