Former Ulster Unionist voters came out in droves for the DUP, seeking to block any power-sharing role for Sinn Fein. Clearly, direct rule with all its drawbacks and dangers is preferable for most unionists than seeing Sinn Fein in ministerial seats.
In order to break the deadlock, most observers believe unilateral and transparent actions by the IRA are inevitable, although these alone will probably not be enough to break the impasse in the short-term.
Gerry Adams, the Sinn Fein president, needs a continually increasing electoral mandate to justify his radical appeal to the IRA to stand down. This election, although partially disappointing for his party, may just be enough to persuade republicans they should accede.
The new Northern secretary, Peter Hain, has a reputation for tough-talking and has already pledged his government to the twin targets of ending all paramilitary activities, permanently, in return for expecting unionists to work the Good Friday agreement and share power with Sinn Fein.
After his first walkabout, in Belfast city center, Hain said: “The prime minister made it clear that he will keep a very hands-on approach to securing peace and building the institutions. It is very, very important to him.
“It’s an absolute priority, he told me when he appointed me on Friday night. Jonathan Powell’s involvement [Blair’s chief of staff] is also crucial, but I intend to take myself a very direct, leading role in this alongside the prime minister.”
Senior Ulster Unionist, Sir Reg Empey, urged Hain to avoid becoming involved in more negotiations with republicans. He mustn’t, said Empey, “fall into the trap of another set of talks which give republicans the chance to sell the same horse.”
The Ulster Unionist Party is also facing a period of tough deliberation after its humiliation at the hands of the DUP. It lost four out of its five seats including that of party leader, David Trimble, in Upper Bann.
The UUP fell from being the second largest at Westminster to holding just one seat, compared to the DUP’s nine. The DUP took a total of four seats from the UUP, seats that it will find extremely difficult to win back.
The UUP badly needs to unify itself around a single leader, rebuild itself from the bottom up. Only then will it be able to pose a genuine threat to the rampant DUP.
Sinn Fein gained an extra seat and now holds five. Figures show the party has to gain a far higher turn out to win seats than any other party.
The SDLP gained one seat, but lost another, to keep its total at three. SDLP leader Mark Durkan won Foyle, a seat that had been held by John Hume since 1983. Both the SDLP and Sinn Fein had thrown everything they had into the battle.
The SDLP’s loss of its Newry/Armagh seat, which had been held by deputy leader Seamus Mallon, to Sinn Fein’s Conor Murphy was widely expected.
Sinn Fein also retained four seats: Martin McGuinness (Mid Ulster), Adams (West Belfast), Michelle Gildernew, (Fermanagh/South Tyrone) and Pat Doherty (West Tyrone). The SDLP’s Eddie McGrady held his South Down seat.
William McCrea, DUP, took the South Antrim seat from David Burnside of the UUP, while DUP’s Sammy Wilson took East Antrim from Ulster Unionist Roy Beggs. In a statement on Friday night, UUP chairman James Cooper said the party was “bitterly disappointed.”
The DUP’s David Simpson said of his own victory: “It sends out a very, very clear signal that pushover unionism has gone forever.” The party was jubilant at its victories. There was hardly a constituency where its vote did not go up.
The SDLP’s Alasdair McDonnell had a surprise win in South Belfast. Jimmy Spratt of the DUP came in second place with the UUP’s Michael McGimpsey trailing in third place in a seat that was previously his party’s.
Speaking in the aftermath of the results, DUP leader Ian Paisley said it had been a “historic and a thumping endorsement” of party values. “This election result is momentous,” he said.
“Our message that there can be no fudge between democracy and terror has been vindicated. No longer will there be any dispute about who speaks for Northern Ireland. Never again will there be a return to the days of terrorists in government and never again will unionists be subject to humiliation.”
Paisley said he would never speak to Sinn Fein, even if the IRA disbands and decommissions “in its present form”. In stark contrast, Adams said that the DUP had already conceded the fundamentals of the Good Friday agreement.
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