Voters reject Nice Treaty

By Andrew Bushe

DUBLIN — European leaders will be closely questioning the taoiseach and Foreign Minister Brian Cowen this week after the political establishment was given a stunning rebuff by voters who rejected the Nice Treaty on enlargement.

In the lowest-ever turnout for an EU-related referendum, only 35 percent of Irish voters cast their ballot, 54 percent of whom rejected treaty.

Only two of the country’s 41 constituencies, Dublin South and Dun Laoghaire, voted in favor, despite backing for Nice from the Irish government, Fine Gael, Labor, trade unions and employer bodies, and the Catholic hierarchy.

Lined up against the treaty was an unlikely coalition of the Greens, Sinn Fein, Catholic family values and anti-abortion groups and independent socialists.

They delivered a dramatic snub that resulted in the fourth-highest rejection vote in the taoiseach’s own constituency and the highest vote "No" vote in the constituency of Tanaiste Mary Harney.

Green Party Euro-MP Patricia McKenna, one of the leading opponents of the treaty, said it was now "back to the drawing board."

"It is a David and Goliath result," she said. "Despite the fact that you had all the political establishment on one side, people came out and quite substantially voted again what they had been told to do.

"This is a major historic event for Ireland, but it is also a turning point for Europe."

Euro shock

The result shockwaves through EU capitals and the former communist bloc countries lining up to join.

The perception of the result in Europe is that Ireland has turned its back on integration after benefiting from decades of subsidies and catching up with the richest states.

When Taoiseach Bertie Ahern meets his EU colleagues in Gothenburg in Sweden later this week, a variety of measures, such as additional protocols, opt-out clauses and derogations, will be discussed.

While the treaty itself is not expected to be renegotiated, changes surrounding it are expected to be followed by a further referendum, probably after the general election, which is now widely expected in May or June 2001.

Holding it on the same day as a general election is also a possibility, as it would ensure a larger turnout. But the government is expected to be cautious about a simultaneous election and referenda in case it causes further confusion and hostility.

While there were general arguments against the treaty, particularly opposition to the creation of what is seen as a two-tier superstate lacking in democratic accountability, many of the issues raised by opponents had nothing to do with Nice.

A mechanism to deal with widespread concerns about threats to neutrality, as a result of Irish participation in the EU Rapid Deployment Force, will be carefully examined.

"I have to admit that all those of us on the "Yes" side have obviously not succeeded in overcoming the negative public fears and perceptions," the taoiseach said.

"I have to be quite honest. I didn’t think it was going to be beaten and neither did I think we were going to get such a low turnout.

"The democratic will of the people is the democratic will of the people. The people listen to what’s said and they formulate a view and we have to respect that."

Ireland is the only country that will put the treaty to the people in a nationwide vote. All the others are due to ratify it by votes of their parliaments.

It has to be passed by the end of next year by all 15 countries to establish new procedures and voting mechanisms for enlargement.

The Irish "No" vote is being compared to a 1992 crisis when Denmark rejected the EU Maastricht Treaty. Doubters there were assuaged by opt-outs and a second referendum was successful.

Many of the opponents will not be satisfied unless the treaty is scrapped and renegotiated. They say a further referendum without that is an example of arrogance on the part of the EU elite and the political establishment.

Ahern’s embarrassment has been compounded by junior minister and grandson of Eamon de Valera, Eamon O Cuiv, disclosing he voted "No".

The Fine Gael Foreign Affairs spokesman, Jim O’Keeffe, described the result as "very bad for Ireland."

"It sends out the wrong signal not only to existing members but also to applicant countries," he said.

He said half-a-million Irish people voted "No" to a treaty that had been approved by the political leaders of the EU and prospective member states, which have a combined population of 500 million.