West of the River Bann, Sinn Fein rules

By Jack Holland

In the race for the new Northern Ireland assembly, Sinn Fein has emerged as the dominant Nationalist party west of the River Bann, its most impressive electoral performance in decades. Of the 18 Nationalist seats in the five constituencies, East Tyrone, West Tyrone, Foyle, Mid-Ulster and Fermanagh-South Tyrone, Sinn Fein won 10 and the SDLP eight.

It has pulled ahead of the SDLP in West Tyrone, winning three seats to the SDLP’s two, in Mid-Ulster, where it took three seats compared to the SDLP’s one, and in Fermanagh-South Tryone, outpolling the SDLP by two seats to one. Only in Foyle and East Derry can the party of John Hume still claim to be the representative voice of Northern Ireland Nationalism west of the Bann.

Both Derry city and county are still the domain of Hume. The SDLP took three seats in Foyle, with Sinn Fein winning two. In the mainly Protestant East Derry constituency, Sinn Fein failed to win any, leaving the SDLP as the dominant Nationalist party with two seats

Though Sinn Fein is level with the SDLP in numbers of seats in Belfast, with each party having five, it still holds a majority of the Nationalist vote, making it the biggest Nationalist party there. The city vote showed Sinn Fein very much in control of West Belfast, where it took four of the six seats, leaving the SDLP with two. Meanwhile, in North Belfast, the two Nationalist parties took a seat each. Hume’s party did better in the more middle-class constituency of South Belfast, securing two seats, where Sinn Fein failed to win any. Neither party secured a seat in the strongly Protestant East Belfast constituency.

As a sign of the changing political climate in Northern Ireland, among those Sinn Fein candidates elected were four members or former members of the IRA’s ruling body, the Army Council: Gerry Adams (West Belfast), Martin McGuinness (Mid-Ulster), Pat Doherty (West Tyrone) and Gerry Kelly (North Belfast). Traditionally, the Army Council has seven members, and determines the overall strategy of the IRA. McGuinness is a former chief of staff and Kelly a former adjutant general. It is thought that Kelly, though no longer on the Army Council, is a member of the IRA’s caretaker Executive, which has the responsibility for appointing the Army Council.

Sinn Fein’s showing in West Tyrone was especially impressive, securing 34 percent of the first-preference votes. This should place Doherty in a strong position to win the seat at the next British general election.

The party won 18 seats over all and increased its percentage of the vote in Northern Ireland to 17.65, compared to just over 16 percent in last year’s general election. In the same election, its Nationalist rival scored 24.1 percent, compared to 21.99 percent last week. In the previous decade, Sinn Fein peaked at 13.1 percent in 1983 and thereafter started to decline. Its share of the vote began a steady climb following the August 1994 IRA cease-fire.

Party strategists believe they can replace the SDLP as the main Nationalist party in the North. This latest result will doubtless encourage them to pursue that aim.